agi

> #Altman is in short-term exit preparation mode, not planning for #AGI or even GPT-5.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41749371

Abstract: This paper will look at the various predictions that have been made about AI and propose decomposition schemas for analyzing them. It will propose a variety of theoretical tools for analyzing, judging, and improving these predictions. Focusing specifically on timeline predictions (dates given by which we should expect the creation of AI), it will show that there are strong theoretical grounds to expect predictions to be quite poor in this area. Using a database of 95 AI timeline predictions, it will show that these expectations are borne out in practice: expert predictions contradict each other considerably, and are indistinguishable from non-expert predictions and past failed predictions. Predictions that AI lie 15 to 25 years in the future are the most common, from experts and non-experts alike.

Emphasis added. From https://intelligence.org/files/PredictingAI.pdf
Armstrong, Stuart, and Kaj Sotala. 2012. “How We’re Predicting AI—or Failing To.” In Beyond AI: Artificial Dreams, edited by Jan Romportl, Pavel Ircing, Eva Zackova, Michal Polak, and Radek Schuster, 52–75. Pilsen: University of West Bohemia.

Note that this is from 2012.

One wonders what exactly an expert is when it comes to AI, if their track records are so consistently poor and unresponsive to their own failures.

#AI #GenAI #GenerativeAI #AGI

Resistance to the coup is the defense of the human against the digital and the democratic against the oligarchic.

From https://snyder.substack.com/p/of-course-its-a-coup

Defense of the human against the digital has been my mission for some time. Resisting the narratives about how #LLMs "reason", "pass the Turing test", "diagnose illnesses", are "better than humans" in various ways are part of it. Resisting the false narrative that we're on the verge of discovering #AGI is part of it. Allowing these false stories to persist and spread means succumbing to very dark anti-human forces. We're seeing some of the consequences now, and we're seeing how far this might go.

#USPol #AI #GenAI #GenerativeAI #LLM #AGI

Over 2,000 years ago Ovid wrote about a sculptor who fell in love with a statue he carved, imputing the ability to love to an arrangement of rock. Today we impute the ability to think to an arrangement of silicon. Stories of breathing life into non-life have been with us for a very long time, yet somehow we're stuck in the same place.

#AI #GenAI #GenerativeAI #AGI #Pygmalion #Golem #Pinocchio #Talos #Frankenstein