From Nobel Prizeâ€"winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller, a new way to think about how popular stories help drive economic events
In a world in which internet troll farms attempt to influence foreign elections, can we afford to ignore the power of viral stories to affect economies? In this groundbreaking book, Nobel Prizeâ€"winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller offers a new way to think about the economy and economic change. Using a rich array of historical examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that affect individual and collective economic behaviorâ€"what he calls "narrative economics"â€"has the potential to vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises, recessions, depressions, and other major economic events.
Spread through the public in the form of popular stories, ideas can go viral and move marketsâ€"whether it's the belief that tech stocks can only go up, that housing prices never fall, or that some firms are too big to fail. Whether true or false, stories like theseâ€"transmitted by word of mouth, by the news media, and increasingly by social mediaâ€"drive the economy by driving our decisions about how and where to invest, how much to spend and save, and more. But despite the obvious importance of such stories, most economists have paid little attention to them. Narrative Economics sets out to change that by laying the foundation for a way of understanding how stories help propel economic events that have had led to war, mass unemployment, and increased inequality.
The stories people tellâ€"about economic confidence or panic, housing booms, the American dream, or Bitcoinâ€"affect economic outcomes. Narrative Economics explains how we can begin to take these stories seriously. The result may be Robert Shiller's most important book to date.

For many years now China's economy has seemed unstoppable. A slow appreciation of the renminbi in 2007 brought wave upon wave of liquidity into China and allowed its companies and banks to raise hundreds of billions in dollars via stock market listings. State banks that had started the new century as bankrupt relics of a communist past became the darlings of international investors.
Even the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the ensuing global financial crisis seemed to have little impact on China as the government quickly responded with a huge stimulus package. But the Lehman collapse was a dramatic wake up call to the Chinese leadership. This model of bank and capital market reform had been studiously emulated for more than a decade and had brought great benefits to China. But now, although they believed it to be bankrupt, the Chinese government were bereft of new ideas. In the face of the global financial crisis the government returned to what it knows best, massive state intervention via the banking system. Ten years of banking and capital market reforms were dead.
In Red Capitalism, Carl Walter and Fraser Howie detail how the Chinese government reformed and modeled its financial system in the 30 years since it began its policy of engagement with the west. Instead of a stable series of policies producing steady growth, China's financial sector has boomed and gone bust with regularity in each decade. The latest decade is little different. Chinese banks have become objects of political struggle while they totter under balance sheets bloated by the excessive state-directed lending and bond issuance of 2009.
Looking forward, the government's response to the global financial crisis has created a banking system the stability of which can be maintained only behind the walls of a non-convertible currency, a myriad of off-balance sheet arrangements with non-public state entities and the strong support of its best borrowers--the politically potent National Champions--who are the greatest beneficiaries of the financial status quo.
China's financial system is not a model for the west and, indeed, is not a sustainable arrangement for China itself as it seeks increasingly to assert its influence internationally. This is not a story of impending collapse, but of frustrated reforms that suggests that any full opening and meaningful reform of the financial sector is not, indeed cannot be, on the government's agenda anytime soon.

《随机微分方程》(第6版)是《Universitext》丛书之一，是一部理想的研究生教材，内容做了较大的修改和补充，包括鞅表示论、变分不等式和随机控制等内容，书后附有部分习题解答和提示。随机微分方程在数学以外的许多领域有着广泛的应用，它对数学领域中的许多分支起着有效的联结作用。

Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea - price equals expected discounted payoff - that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model - consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing - is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.

Economists seem to be everywhere in the media these days. But what exactly do today's economists do? What and how are they taught? Updating David Colander and Arjo Klamer's classic The Making of an Economist, this book shows what is happening in elite U.S. economics Ph.D. programs. By examining these programs, Colander gives a view of cutting-edge economics--and a glimpse at its likely future. And by comparing economics education today to the findings of the original book, the new book shows how much--and in what ways--the field has changed over the past two decades. The original book led to a reexamination of graduate education by the profession, and has been essential reading for prospective graduate students. Like its predecessor, The Making of an Economist, Redux is likely to provoke discussion within economics and beyond.
The book includes new interviews with students at Harvard, Princeton, Stanford, MIT, Chicago, and Columbia. In these conversations, the students--the next generation of elite economists--colorfully and frankly describe what they think of their field and what graduate economics education is really like. The book concludes with reflections by Colander, Klamer, and Robert Solow.
This inside look at the making of economists will interest anyone who wants to better understand the economics profession. An indispensible tool for anyone thinking about graduate education in economics, this edition is complete with colorful interviews and predictions about the future of cutting-edge economics.

《递归宏观经济理论(第2版)》内容简介：在刻画和求解动态宏观经济学中的复杂问题时，递归方法是一个强有力的工具。在《递归宏观经济理论》一书中，既有关于递归方法的基本介绍，也有关于递归方法的高级内容，同时还包含了各种计算工具和应用实例。在《递归宏观经济理论(第2版)》第二版中，作者对于第一版的一半以上的内容进行了根本性的修订，同时还包含了七章全新的涉及更广泛题材的内容。对于《递归宏观经济理论(第2版)》第二版而言，无论是修订部分，还是全新章节，涵盖的都是当前的热门论题，并藉此进一步阐明了递归方法的魅力。
对于《递归宏观经济理论(第2版)》第一版的原有章节所做的根本性修订包括，关于递归均衡的存在性的更好的处理，关于上鞅收敛定理的进一步解释，以及当存在不完全市场时，处理经济中的最优税收问题的扩展方法。第二版中的全新内容包括了一章引论，这一章概述了全书所讨论的各种论题之间的共性；包括了两章全新的内容，这两章提供了关于最优增长模型的完整内容及其在宏观经济学和财政方面的一些基本应用；其他的全新章节涉及的内容还有，如何在线性经济中构造和计算斯塔克贝格计划或拉姆齐计划，没有承诺的可持续的风险分担均衡以及递归合同在国际贸易领域中的应用等。《递归宏观经济理论(第2版)》绝大部分章节的最后都包含了练习题，并且《递归宏观经济理论(第2版)》最后还提供了两个技术附录，介绍泛函分析和控制与滤波方面的基本内容。

《经济物理学:用物理学的方法或思想探讨一些经济或金融问题》讲述了从伽利略时代计起，物理学已经经过400多年的系统发展，其结果显著影响了人类生活，如电、计算机等的出现，物理学在其中的作用，无与伦比。从斯密（Adam Smith）时代计起，经济学也已经系统发展了200多年，然而，在影响人类生活方面，与物理学相比，其结果仍旧有待发展。这个差异可能是因为物理学的方法和思想更适合解决现实问题。可是，物理学的研究对象是自然界，而经济学的研究对象是人类社会。那么，一个有启发意义的问题是：适用于自然界的物理学的方法和思想，是否可以推广用于研究人类社会呢？答案是肯定的，此书较为系统地回答了这个问题。这个领域就叫“经济物理学”，它是物理学在新时期的一个新发展，同时，它也为换个视角重新审视一些经济或金融问题，提供了一个司能。由于物理学是基于实验对自然界的理解，它强调对自然界中的客观事实和实验室中的实验现象的阐述，所以，我们把经济物理学分为“实证经济物理学”和“实验经济物理学”两个方向，前者强调的是经济物理理论需要通过经济或金融市场数据的实证分析检验，而后者强调的是经济物理理论需要通过实验室中的可控实验经验。

企业是否应当，以及何时投资于新资本设备，增加工作组，或者开发新产品?为什么投资的传统经济模型未能解释美国和其他国家的投资开支活动？在本书中，阿维纳什·迪克西特和罗怕特·平迪克提供了一种关于企业资本投资决策的新理论，强调了大多数投资决策中的不可逆性，以及作出这些决策时经济环境中的不确定性。利用这种方法，他们回答了投资决策和投资支出出行为中的上述问题以及其他重要问题。
关于投资的这种新方法认识到了等待更好(但永远不完全)信息的期权价值。它利用了金融市场期权理论的一种类推，这使它比传统投资理论拥有一种更丰富的动态框架。作者以一种清晰而且系统的方式阐述了这种新理论，而且还巩固、综合并拓展了从这种理论中发展出来的各种研究领域。
本书揭示了理解企业投资行为的重要性。它阐述了这种理论在投资的产业动态均衡和政府政策方面的影响，还揭示了这种理论如何应用到特定产业及各种更宽泛的商业问题。

作者简介：
罗伯特·平迪克 麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院三菱银行经济学讲座教授。他的著作包括《世界能源需求结构》(麻省理工学院出版社)，与丹尼尔·鲁宾菲尔德(Danel L.Lubinfeld)合著的《计量经济模型与经济预测》(麦吉尔出版社)(中译本由机械工业出版社出版)，以及《微观经济学》(麦克米伦出版公司)(中译本由中国人民大学出版社出版)等。
阿维纳什·迪克西特，普林斯顿大学约翰·J·F·谢勒德(Jolm J.F.Sherrerd')第52任大学经济学讲座教授。他的著作包括与维克多·诺曼(Victor Norman)合著的《国际贸易理论》（剑桥大学出版社），与巴利·内拉巴夫(Barry Nalebuff)合著的《战略性思考》(诺顿出版公司)。

Fisher was one of America’s greatest mathematical economists. This book is still used a textbook and is an outstanding example of clearly written economic theory.

近年来，金融数学的发展离不开随机微积分，而《量子金融(英文版)》提供了一种完全独立于该方法的新方法，将量子力学和量子场论中的数学公式和概念运用到期货理论和利率模型中，重点讲述路径积分。相应的得到了不少新的预期结果。《量子金融(英文版)》主要介绍了金融基本概念：金融基础；衍生证券；有限自由度系统：哈密顿体系和股票期货；路径积分和股票期货；随机利率模型的哈密顿体系和路径积分；利率模型的量子场论：利率远期合约的量子场论；经验利率远期合约和场论模型；国债衍生品场论；利率远期合约和场论哈密顿体系结论。

《过去的钱值多少钱》系统介绍19世纪北京、巴黎和伦敦的货币形式与它们之间的汇率、物价水平和收入水平，发现了不少相关学术著作（包括许多著名专家和学者在内）、文学作品（包括一些著名作家）中的误读之例，首次揭发了一直以来被认为“廉洁”的英国人赫德和金登干在中国海关任职时的贪污事实。是一部既有学术含量，又有趣可读的专著。

《从资本家手中拯救资本主义:捍卫金融市场自由创造财富和机会》通过对资本主义发展过程，特别是金融市场发展的分析，剖析了资本主义制度的基本优劣，指出既得利益集团，即资本家们，为维护其既得利益免受竞争威胁，常常成为资本主义最大的敌人。继而提出如何巩固市场经济的政治基础，建立真正竞争性的市场，从资本家手中拯救资本主义。

In a grand and immemsely readable synthesis of historical, political, cultural, and economic analysis, a prize-winning historian depicts much more than a break with England. He gives readers a revolution that transformed an almost feudal society into a democratic one, whose emerging realities sometimes baffled and disappointed its founding fathers.

本书全面阐述了金融时间序列，并主要介绍了金融时间序列理论和方法的当前研究热点和一些最新研究成果，尤其是风险值计算、高频数据分析、随机波动率建模和马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗方法等方面。此外，本书还系统阐述了金融计量经济模型及其在金融时间序列数据和建模中的应用，所有模型和方法的运用均采用实际金融数据，并给出了所用计算机软件的命令。较之第1版，本版主要在新的发展和实证分析方面进行了更新，新增了状态空间模型和Kalman滤波以及S-Plus命令等内容。 本书可作为时间序列分析的教材，也适用于商学、经济学、数学和统计学专业对金融的计量经济学感兴趣的高年级本科生和研究生，同时，也可作为商业、金融、保险等领域专业人士的参考书。

《金融工程中的蒙特卡罗方法(影印版)》中介绍了蒙特卡罗方法在金融中的用途，并且将模拟用作呈现金融工程中模型和思想的工具。《金融工程中的蒙特卡罗方法》大致分为三个部分。第一部分介绍了蒙特卡罗方法的基本原理，衍生定价基础以及金融工程中一些最重要模型的实现。第二部分描述了如何改进模拟精确度和效率。最后的第三部分讲述了几个特别的论题：价格敏感度估计，美式期权定价以及金融投资组合中的市场风险和信贷风险评估。

中国的货币老虎越养越大。是货币总要出来购物，是老虎总要出来吃肉。既然人们对货币之虎冲入市场并抬升物价有很大的意见，那么在左拦右截之余，不妨考虑，究竟喂多大一块肉，才足以让这只货币老虎乖乖地呆在笼子里，不跑到街上来作乱？
——摘自《货币的教训》，“货币老虎越养越大”