How the history of technological revolutions can help us better understand economic and political polarization in the age of automation
From the Industrial Revolution to the age of artificial intelligence, The Technology Trap takes a sweeping look at the history of technological progress and how it has radically shifted the distribution of economic and political power among society’s members. As Carl Benedikt Frey shows, the Industrial Revolution created unprecedented wealth and prosperity over the long run, but the immediate consequences of mechanization were devastating for large swaths of the population. Middle-income jobs withered, wages stagnated, the labor share of income fell, profits surged, and economic inequality skyrocketed. These trends, Frey documents, broadly mirror those in our current age of automation, which began with the Computer Revolution.
Just as the Industrial Revolution eventually brought about extraordinary benefits for society, artificial intelligence systems have the potential to do the same. But Frey argues that this depends on how the short term is managed. In the nineteenth century, workers violently expressed their concerns over machines taking their jobs. The Luddite uprisings joined a long wave of machinery riots that swept across Europe and China. Today’s despairing middle class has not resorted to physical force, but their frustration has led to rising populism and the increasing fragmentation of society. As middle-class jobs continue to come under pressure, there’s no assurance that positive attitudes to technology will persist.
The Industrial Revolution was a defining moment in history, but few grasped its enormous consequences at the time. The Technology Trap demonstrates that in the midst of another technological revolution, the lessons of the past can help us to more effectively face the present.

If you're a Brit reading this book - or from any other country where modesty rules - congratulations! You've already overcome the biggest cultural hang-up to your personal brand: that it's 'not the done thing'
to have one, let alone tell anyone else you have one. After all, arrogance is not an attractive quality. So here's the good news: the book you have in your hands is especially written by a Brit (me) for Brits (you) to avoid the arrogance entirely and provide a guide to subtly blowing your own trumpet without sounding like an idiot.

Machine learning is one of the fastest growing areas of computer science, with far-reaching applications. The aim of this textbook is to introduce machine learning, and the algorithmic paradigms it offers, in a principled way. The book provides an extensive theoretical account of the fundamental ideas underlying machine learning and the mathematical derivations that transform these principles into practical algorithms. Following a presentation of the basics of the field, the book covers a wide array of central topics that have not been addressed by previous textbooks. These include a discussion of the computational complexity of learning and the concepts of convexity and stability; important algorithmic paradigms including stochastic gradient descent, neural networks, and structured output learning; and emerging theoretical concepts such as the PAC-Bayes approach and compression-based bounds. Designed for an advanced undergraduate or beginning graduate course, the text makes the fundamentals and algorithms of machine learning accessible to students and non-expert readers in statistics, computer science, mathematics, and engineering.

全球化与文化研究的经典著作
虽然目前有许多人著书谈论跨民族世界中的全球文化，然而没有人能像阿帕杜莱一样，既有全球性的视野，又熟谙人类学文献及其世界观。这部作品闪耀着智慧之光，对现代性与后现代性问题提出了深刻且令人满意的质问。
——谢里·奥特纳（Sherry Ortner），加州大学伯克利分校
阿尔君·阿帕杜莱是研究新制度主义所谓跨国公共领域的先锋的社会理论家……他取材多方，信手拈来——从自传性质的到高度理论的，从板球到统计学，从印度泰米尔纳德到美国硅谷。
——帕尔塔·查特吉（Partha Chatterjee），《民族主义思想与殖民地世界》作者
我希望能以人类学对文化维度的强调为全球化争论带来一个重要转向， 这一点在我作为区域研究学者所经受的训练和实践中得到进一步加强。
——阿尔君·阿帕杜莱
全球化或许意味着托马斯·弗里德曼所描述的“平坦世界”，麦克卢汉所构建的“地球村”，或者马丁·阿尔杜劳的“无国界世界”，而对印度裔人类学家阿尔君·阿帕杜莱而言，与其说全球化是不可逆转的世界潮流，不如说它建基于想象之上，并日益呈现出流离与散裂的面貌。
《消散的现代性》为全球 化的文化研究提出了全新的框架，它指出想象在今日世界具有现实的社会力量：不仅为身份认同提供了新的资源，也为创造民族-国家的替代方案提供了新的能量。作者审视了当今全球化时代——其特色是大众迁移与电子媒体的孪生力量，并对大众消费模式、多元文化主义论争与族群暴力提出了新的见解。

Silicon Valley is a modern utopia where anyone can change the world. Unless you're a woman.
For women in tech, Silicon Valley is not a fantasyland of unicorns, virtual reality rainbows, and 3D-printed lollipops, where millions of dollars grow on trees. It's a "Brotopia," where men hold all the cards and make all the rules. Vastly outnumbered, women face toxic workplaces rife with discrimination and sexual harassment, where investors take meetings in hot tubs and colleagues network over lunch at the local strip club.
In this powerful exposé, Bloomberg TV journalist Emily Chang reveals how Silicon Valley got so sexist despite its utopian ideals, why bro culture endures despite decades of companies claiming the moral high ground (Don't Be Evil! Connect the World!)--and how women are finally starting to speak out and fight back.
Drawing on her deep network of Silicon Valley insiders, Chang opens the boardroom doors of male-dominated venture capital firms like Kleiner Perkins, the subject of Ellen Pao's high-profile gender discrimination lawsuit, and Sequoia, where a partner once famously said they "won't lower their standards" just to hire women. Interviews with Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki, and former Yahoo! CEO Marissa Mayer--who got their start at Google, where just one in five engineers is a woman--reveal just how hard it is to crack the Silicon Ceiling. And Chang shows how women such as former Uber engineer Susan Fowler, entrepreneur Niniane Wang, and game developer Brianna Wu, have risked their careers and sometimes their lives to pave a way for other women.
Silicon Valley's aggressive, misogynistic, work-at-all costs culture has shut women out of the greatest wealth creation in the history of the world. It's time to break up the boys' club. Emily Chang shows us how to fix this toxic culture--to bring down Brotopia, once and for all.

本书利用丰富的档案材料，将焦点集中在民间、个人以及非政府机构之间的互相交往和积极互动上，梳理了蒲安臣、留美幼童、戈鲲化、古德诺、杜威、国际体育等六个领域的丰富历史轨迹，向读者展示，无论中美两国的官方外交关系如何变幻不定，民间和文化层次的交往自有其自身发展的特质和运行规律，并且始终保持高度的活跃机制。“共有的历史”注重文化层面和非政府之间的关系，关注中美两国共享的价值观和目标，而不是简单地只注重政府和军队。从这种角度，我们可以解读出一种全新的中美关系史，并可能找到一种具有重要学术价值的新范式。
这本书的副标题“一部共有的历史”，不但是表明徐国琦解读美中关系史的关键所在，而且指出了当今史学研究的一个重大发展方向。徐国琦自己就是“共有的历史”精神的代表，作为一名杰出的历史学家，他的著作对于中国和美国的历史研究，实际上为整个世界的历史研究都做出了卓越的贡献。
——入江昭（哈佛大学教授）
中美人民关系的历史是关于人的历史，而非只是高层的政治与外交的历史。我们的关系向来受到那些来到美国的中国人，以及前往中国的美国的私领域所定义。来去两国间的他们是顾问，是学生与老师，是劳工、知识分子、创业家，至今依旧如此。本书收录中美人民在过去两个世纪里共有历史的精彩文章，作者重新讲述了当时著名的旅居人士的故事，他们是建构了我们数个世代所继承的中美关系基础的文化大使，现在却不为人所知。所有认真研究中美关系的学生都一定想阅读本书。
——柯伟林（哈佛大学教授）
在广泛、高度原创并且可靠的研究支持之下，徐国琦的作品确实另辟蹊径，充满学者风范与聪明才智，重新定义了整体国际历史研究的某些关键面向，其中更以中美关系研究为最。本书专注于个人而非国家、政府等各种体制机构，呈现出重要并发人深省的“共有历史”主题，讲述中美人民彼此的相遇。他不使用复杂、模糊或无意义的专有名词为读者带来负担，而是说出一个个引人入胜的故事。
——陈兼（康奈尔大学教授）
《中国人和美国人》着眼于中美两国人民共同的历程和追求，从国际史的视角重建中美两国人民交往与合作的经历，提供了关于中美关系史的新叙事……不仅带来了学术上的范式创新，而且展现了参与现实的思想力量，值得每一位中美关系史研究者和关心中美关系的人阅读。
——王立新（北京大学教授）
徐教授师承入江昭教授，研究领域纵横出入于多重国际关系的脉络，睿见频出。本书正是国际级史家技艺的展现，不仅可以替有心问津斯道的后来新秀指引方向，也是一般读者向历史探求智慧的启蒙凭借。
——潘光哲（中研院近史所研究员）
徐氏希望通过近代中美文化交流的个案经历，建构出中美两国人民“共有的历史”的心理认知和共同愿望，而非完全依赖国家力量主导一切。……“共有的历史”可以是中美共同经历的希望、沮丧、挫败，掌握此一取径将可扩展至其他主题的研究；它可以贯穿于文化交流、政府活动、商业伙伴、军事合作、技术转移等各个层面，通过具体个案来探索与之联系的中国史、美国史以及中美之间的经历和意义，找寻相互利用、相互竞争、合作分享、冲突分歧等各方面的交往意义。
——吴翎君（台湾师范大学教授）

Most new businesses fail. But most of those failures are preventable. "The Lean Startup" is a new approach to business that's being adopted around the world. It is changing the way companies are built and new products are launched. "The Lean Startup" is about learning what your customers really want. It's about testing your vision continuously, adapting and adjusting before it's too late. Now is the time to think Lean.

The instant Wall Street Journal, USA Today, and international bestseller
“While the history books are filled with tales of obsessive visionary geniuses who remade the world in their image with sheer, almost irrational force, I’ve found that history is also made by individuals who fought their egos at every turn, who eschewed the spotlight, and who put their higher goals above their desire for recognition.” —from the prologue
Many of us insist the main impediment to a full, successful life is the outside world. In fact, the most common enemy lies within: our ego. Early in our careers, it impedes learning and the cultivation of talent. With success, it can blind us to our faults and sow future problems. In failure, it magnifies each blow and makes recovery more difficult. At every stage, ego holds us back.
Ego Is the Enemy draws on a vast array of stories and examples, from literature to philosophy to history. We meet fascinating figures such as George Marshall, Jackie Robinson, Katharine Graham, Bill Belichick, and Eleanor Roosevelt, who all reached the highest levels of power and success by conquering their own egos. Their strategies and tactics can be ours as well.
In an era that glorifies social media, reality TV, and other forms of shameless self-promotion, the battle against ego must be fought on many fronts. Armed with the lessons in this book, as Holiday writes, “you will be less invested in the story you tell about your own specialness, and as a result, you will be liberated to accomplish the world-changing work you’ve set out to achieve.”

The latest groundbreaking tome from Tim Ferriss, the #1 New York Times best-selling author of The 4-Hour Workweek.
From the author:
“For the last two years, I’ve interviewed more than 200 world-class performers for my podcast, The Tim Ferriss Show. The guests range from super celebs (Jamie Foxx, Arnold Schwarzenegger, etc.) and athletes (icons of powerlifting, gymnastics, surfing, etc.) to legendary Special Operations commanders and black-market biochemists. For most of my guests, it’s the first time they’ve agreed to a two-to-three-hour interview. This unusual depth has helped make The Tim Ferriss Show the first business/interview podcast to pass 100 million downloads.
“This book contains the distilled tools, tactics, and ‘inside baseball’ you won’t find anywhere else. It also includes new tips from past guests, and life lessons from new ‘guests’ you haven’t met.
“What makes the show different is a relentless focus on actionable details. This is reflected in the questions. For example: What do these people do in the first sixty minutes of each morning? What do their workout routines look like, and why? What books have they gifted most to other people? What are the biggest wastes of time for novices in their field? What supplements do they take on a daily basis?
“I don’t view myself as an interviewer. I view myself as an experimenter. If I can’t test something and replicate results in the messy reality of everyday life, I’m not interested.
“Everything within these pages has been vetted, explored, and applied to my own life in some fashion. I’ve used dozens of the tactics and philosophies in high-stakes negotiations, high-risk environments, or large business dealings. The lessons have made me millions of dollars and saved me years of wasted effort and frustration.
“I created this book, my ultimate notebook of high-leverage tools, for myself. It’s changed my life, and I hope the same for you.”

"A remarkable book that influenced the scientific thought of an entire generation."--Dictionary of Scientific Biography
A major statement of the language, method, and concepts of the physical sciences, this 1892 volume traces not only the history of experimental investigation but also the efforts of philosophic minds to state and organize their findings intelligently. A classic in the philosophy of science, its author is the founder of modern statistics. Karl Pearson was among the most influential university teachers of his era, and he possessed a remarkable ability to captivate both students and casual listeners. In The Grammar of Science, his most widely read book, he introduced the concept of a general methodology underlying all science, and thus made one of the great contributions to modern thought. 1957 ed.

Addressing the prevalent issue of poorly designed quantitative information presentations, this accessible, practical, and comprehensive guide teaches how to properly create tables and graphs for effective and efficient communication. The critical numbers that measure the health, identify the opportunities, and forecast the future of organizations are often misrepresented because few people are trained to design accurate, informative materials, but this manual helps put an end to misinformation. This revised edition of the highly successful book includes updated figures and 91 additional pages of content, including new chapters about quantitative narrative and current misuses of graphs--such as donut, circle, unit, and funnel charts--and new appendices that cover constructing table lens displays and box plots in Excel and useful colour palettes for presentation materials.

为什么铁路信号系统工作正常时，列车仍然会发生撞车事故？为什么所有操作人员都警觉地坚守着工作岗位，核反应堆依然会发生灾难性的熔化事故？为什么我们制定得甚好的那么多专业和个人计划，会如此频繁地出岔子？
迪特里希·德尔纳，德国最高科学将获得者，在此考虑为什么--假定具备所有的 智能、经验和信息条件--我们却仍然会犯错误，有时甚至引起灾难性的后果。令人惊讶的是，他发现问题的答案不在于疏忽或粗心，而是缘于他所谓的"失败的逻辑"：我们思维模式中的某些倾向--诸如一次只做一件事，因果关系，还有线性思维--它们适合于过去的简单世界，对于我们现在所生活的复杂世界却有着灾难性影响。当今世界，一切事物都是相互关联的。我们不能一次只做一件事情，因为每件事都有多重结果；我们不能用孤立的因果模式考虑问题，因为所有的情况都有副作用和长远影响。
德尔纳给我们找到了不少例子。为什么阿斯旺水坝的规划者们，只想到会给埃及带来廉价用电的好处，却没有意识到他们也将会中断几千年来维持尼罗河谷地肥沃富饶的一年一次的洪水漫灌？为什么第三世界健康计划的规划者们不能认识到提高平均寿命就要求增加食物供应，从而疏忽地终止对饥民的捐助？
德尔纳指出，在未了解一个复杂系统中所有连锁因素之前就采取行动，即使我们怀着善良的意愿，也难免铸成大错。面对我们力不能及的问题，小错误累积起来，最后就会酿成严重的错误结论。过于频繁地忽视问题的大局，却只在我们知道如何做的范围内寻求权宜之计--这只能是杯水车薪无济于事。
德尔纳用他自己编制的引人入胜的计算机模拟程序，揭示了我们思维中的这些缺陷。他的例子--有时是开心的，有时是吓人的--和他那"梳脑"思维实验，使我们认识到应该如何处理复杂问题。这些实例使本书成为一件矫正工具，一种明智的规划和决策指南，使商业经理、决策者以及面临由此及彼日常挑战的每一个人的思维技巧更加敏锐。本书将改变我们构思变化的方法本身，使我们对成功之路的判断能力得到提高。

在这本书中，列维特和史蒂芬·都伯纳取材日常生活，以经济学的方式来探索日常事物背后的世界：念书给婴儿听会不会使他日后成为一个好学生？游泳池比枪支还危险？贩毒集团的结构其实和麦当劳的组织很像，而且基层员工和小弟都没赚头，钱都进了总裁和大哥的口袋；父母教养方式的差异对孩子影响不大。
《魔鬼经济学》中确立了一个有悖于传统智慧的观点：如果说伦理道德代表了我们心目中理想的社会运行模式的话，那么经济学就是在向我们描述这个社会到底是如何运行的。
同时，作者也展示了千方百计搜集来的各种数据——学校的考试成绩、日本著名相扑手的秘密证据、房地产经纪人的买卖记录，甚至还有黑社会卧底的秘密日记。通过对这些数据的巧妙分析，作者得出了种种令人跌破眼镜的结论。他将教会你如何用数据分析你所看到的世界；他将告诉你：真实的世界原来是这样的……

【编辑推荐】
从海量的大数据中筛选出真正的信号，
“黑天鹅”事件也可提前预知！
“本书将成为未来十年内最重要的书籍之一。”——《纽约时报》
“对于每一个关心下一刻可能会发生什么的人来说，这都是本必读书。”——理查德•泰勒
《华尔街日报》2012年度10本最佳非虚构类图书之一
《经济学人》杂志2012年度书籍
亚马逊网站2012年度10本最佳非虚构类图书之一
长踞《纽约时报》畅销书排行榜达6个月之久
【内容简介】
天气预报说降水概率为60%，你出门会带伞吗？
被雷电击中的概率到底有多大？
地震发生之前，我们真的无法预测吗？
中情局为什么会忽略“9.11”恐怖袭击发生的信号？
禽流感为何会突然爆发，又突然消失？
为什么大数据时代的预测更容易失败？
人类每时每刻都需要对未来进行预测并制定相应的策略，如此国家、企业乃至个体才能持续发展，因此我们对于“下一刻会发生什么”倍加关注。
在信息爆炸的大数据时代，随着我们的生活节奏变得越来越快，我们所要做出的预测的速度和数量都在不断增加。一个不容忽视的事实是，现实世界中的很多预测都失败了，由此付出了巨大的社会代价。“9.11”恐怖袭击事件、2008年金融危机、卡特里娜飓风、2011年日本大地震、禽流感肆虐，这些“黑天鹅”事件的发生在很大程度上应归咎于糟糕的预测，也就是说预测者们被众多信息中的噪声干扰，而忽视了其中真正的信号。
作者最为美国最具影响力的预测专家之一，检视了从飓风到地震、从经济到股市、从NBA到政治选举在内的众多领域的预测事例，旨在回答一个问题：如何才能从繁杂的海量数据中筛选出真正的信号，从而做出接近真相的预测。
真正优秀的预测者会用概率的方法思考问题，他们谦虚而且勤恳，他们能清楚地区分什么是不可预测的、什么是可预测的，他们注重能带领他们接近真相的成千上百个小细节，他们能辨识出什么是噪声、什么是信号。
从全球经济的健康到战胜恐怖主义，都依靠预测的质量。这本书可以给你想要的答案。
【媒体与专家推荐】
人们喜爱统计学，但统计学并不总能回馈给人们同样的爱。西尔弗的这本书带给我们一场睿智的、优雅的、科学与艺术交叉的预测之旅，从中我们可以领略到当大数据遇到人类本性时将会发生什么。在棒球比赛、天气预报、地震预测、经济预测和竞选投票等领域，西尔弗发现，糟糕的预测往往源自偏见、既定的利益和过度自信。在今天这样一个指标泛滥的世界，这本书给了我们一记及时的提醒：只有正确运用统计学工具的人，才能做出好的预测。——亚马逊网站
这本书对大众的精神启迪意义不亚于像约翰•肯尼斯•加尔布雷斯（曾引发对经济政策的讨论）这样的公共知识分子和像沃尔特•克朗凯特（曾改变对越南战争的看法）这样的社会名人，它将会成为未来十年内最重要的书籍之一。——《纽约时报》书评版
西尔弗轻松随性的语言风格让哪怕是最艰涩的统计资料都变得简单易懂。更重要的是，他的论据和案例都来自于费尽苦心的研究。——《华尔街日报》
西尔弗是统计学界的科特•柯本（美国已故著名摇滚歌手），他写作的这本新书既是一本实践指南，也是一部哲学宣言，通过一系列案例研究——从飓风到职业扑克牌手到恐怖主义，集中论述了一个主题：预测。对于那些想对未来做出更好预测的人和想验证他人预测正确与否的人来说，这本书都极具价值。——《波士顿环球报》
西尔弗以令人难以置信的轻松语言，写了一本关于如何做预测的入门读物，每个人都应该读一读。——《华盛顿邮报》
这本书就像一座宝库，里面有数不尽的宝藏：贝叶斯定理与概率论，运气和性格，扑克牌手对生活的看法，等等。然而最重要的是，它是帮助我们区分繁杂数据中哪些是噪声、哪些是信号的“测试仪”，是我们当下最需要的基本工具；它有时还能帮助我们正确评估那些我们不熟悉却必须了解的信息的价值。——《时尚先生》
统计学或预测是让很多人望而却步的话题，而本书就是关于这个话题的一本有趣的普及读物，棒球比赛、职业扑克牌手、政治选举等例子足以勾起读者的好奇心，甚至会让他们废寝忘食地阅读，而且其中潜藏着帮你做出正确预测的能量。——《石板》杂志
这本书与畅销书《黑天鹅》的观点有异曲同工之妙。西尔弗认为，人类对自己的预测能力往往过度自信，以至于他们排斥用概率的方法思考问题，也不允许自己的预测模型中存在不确定性。——《经济学人》
西尔弗剖析了我们对股市、风暴、体育等并非一成不变的事物所做的预测。——《连线》杂志
对于身处大数据时代的每一个企业、每一场运动赛事和每一个政策制定者来说，这本书都不可不读。——《福布斯》
非常棒的一本书，而且充满阅读的乐趣。西尔弗用这本书给我们制造了一个愉悦的信号。——蒂姆•哈福德，《金融时报》专栏作家
预测很难，特别是对于未来的预测。在这本重要的著作中，西尔弗解释了为什么专家的预测有时正确，有时却一无是处；也分析了为什么我们必须未雨绸缪。对于每一个关心下一刻可能会发生什么的人来说，这都是本必读书。——理查德•泰勒，《助推》作者
在大数据时代做预测可能跟你想象的完全不同。这本观点新鲜且原创的书，为我们区分关于未来的预测中哪些是主观现实、哪些是客观现实，提供了意想不到的启发性视角。作者还指出，只要我们明智地从糟糕的预测中吸取教训，那我们一定会在科学、技术和政治的预测方面取得进步。——洪博培，前美国驻华大使
在你读完这本书后，你一定会更了解为什么有些预测模型有效，而有些毫无用处。你也会更加注意接下来一周的天气预报，而对一周以后的天气预报则毫不在意。西尔弗将一个复杂的、艰涩的话题变成了有趣的、轻松的和亲切的。——皮特•奥斯扎格，前美国国家管理及预算办公室主任
西尔弗并没有提出一个如何做出好预测的综合性理论，但他的这本著作的确有利于帮助人们在诡谲多变的商业世界中做出正确的预测。——克里斯•威尔逊，谷歌公司开发大使