经济
Freakonomics 豆瓣 谷歌图书
7.5 (13 个评分) 作者: Steven D. Levitt / Stephen J. Dubner William Morrow 2005 - 5
Economics is not widely considered to be one of the sexier sciences. The annual Nobel Prize winner in that field never receives as much publicity as his or her compatriots in peace, literature, or physics. But if such slights are based on the notion that economics is dull, or that economists are concerned only with finance itself, Steven D. Levitt will change some minds. In Freakonomics (written with Stephen J. Dubner), Levitt argues that many apparent mysteries of everyday life don't need to be so mysterious: they could be illuminated and made even more fascinating by asking the right questions and drawing connections. For example, Levitt traces the drop in violent crime rates to a drop in violent criminals and, digging further, to the Roe v. Wade decision that preempted the existence of some people who would be born to poverty and hardship. Elsewhere, by analyzing data gathered from inner-city Chicago drug-dealing gangs, Levitt outlines a corporate structure much like McDonald's, where the top bosses make great money while scores of underlings make something below minimum wage. And in a section that may alarm or relieve worried parents, Levitt argues that parenting methods don't really matter much and that a backyard swimming pool is much more dangerous than a gun. These enlightening chapters are separated by effusive passages from Dubner's 2003 profile of Levitt in The New York Times Magazine, which led to the book being written. In a book filled with bold logic, such back-patting veers Freakonomics, however briefly, away from what Levitt actually has to say. Although maybe there's a good economic reason for that too, and we're just not getting it yet. --John Moe
Too Big to Fail 豆瓣 Goodreads
作者: Andrew Ross Sorkin Viking Adult 2009 - 10
Andrew Ross Sorkin delivers the first true behind-the-scenes, moment-by-moment account of how the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression developed into a global tsunami. From inside the corner office at Lehman Brothers to secret meetings in South Korea, and the corridors of Washington, Too Big to Fail is the definitive story of the most powerful men and women in finance and politics grappling with success and failure, ego and greed, and, ultimately, the fate of the world’s economy.
“We’ve got to get some foam down on the runway!” a sleepless Timothy Geithner, the then-president of the Federal Reserve of New York, would tell Henry M. Paulson, the Treasury secretary, about the catastrophic crash the world’s financial system would experience.
Through unprecedented access to the players involved, Too Big to Fail re-creates all the drama and turmoil, revealing never disclosed details and elucidating how decisions made on Wall Street over the past decade sowed the seeds of the debacle. This true story is not just a look at banks that were “too big to fail,” it is a real-life thriller with a cast of bold-faced names who themselves thought they were too big to fail.
2010年3月3日 已读
真是好书!力荐!
2010年3月3日 评论 金融风暴里的“竞技者” - 看完了.539页的精彩记录.从2008年三月十七日(熊斯坦刚被分尸完毕)到2008年十月十三日(包森,伯南克,盖森耐联合起来向九大银行的CEO强行发放TARP贷款并盯着他们全盘接受)为止. 只记得那时候所有的新闻媒体都很激动,坏消息一个接一个,股市哗啦啦的跌,人心惶惑,各种各样的金融术语满天飞,各种各样的经济学家都在沸沸扬扬的各抒己见.财政部和美国联邦储备银行做什么不做什么都有人骂.根本不知道听谁的才好.再加上华尔街好像离我们还是有点远.唯一有切身体会的是房价大跌,公司不再雇人开始紧缩预算大刀阔斧的节流.一边有人说第二个大萧条就要来了,一边有人说不会的不会的... 看了这书才稍微明白那是怎样一场巨大的金融海啸,面对海啸的华尔街上是怎样惊心动魄的一幅景象.而且很可能当一切慢慢好起来后,我们躲过的很可能是比大萧条更糟的境遇.而之所以躲过了这一劫,很可能是要感谢这书里的几个主人公呢. 看得又兴奋又后怕. 这本书最好看的地方在于它把重点放在人身上.就像作者本人在后记里说的,这场风暴的起因过程确实有很多经济理论,政策法令的原因,但是一个银行或者公司在这样意外的巨大灾难面前是死是活,活下来又是怎么个活法很大因素决定于这个公司或银行的执行官是怎样一个人. 这也是令我最意外的.这些站在他们世界顶峰呼风唤雨的大人物们,当面对这样史无前例的经济风暴时,原来也会害怕会慌神会做出很多幼稚可笑的行为.当然他们中也有肯坚持原则,有担当的. 最有收获的是发现在这种超级冷酷的情形下,这么巨大的压力下,这些大人物解决问题的方法也和我们平时工作中的差不多.比方说纽约联邦银行在九月十五日那个周末把华尔街上大银行的头目全请来,给他们一个周末的时间想办法凑钱拯救雷蒙德那次.竟也和我们平时头脑风暴时差不多.分成三个小组,各自选一个问题去解决,几个小时以后回来汇报结果. 最让我意外的另一件事是在那种情况下,这些华尔街所谓见钱眼开的吸血鬼们居然真的齐心协力开始凑钱,几乎凑到三十比去帮英国银行(他们的死对头,其实平时这些银行彼此之间也是死对头)买下雷蒙铺路.后来要不是英国政府因为政治原因出面不许这笔买卖成交,雷蒙差一点就不会破产了. 从熊斯坦出事到雷蒙倒闭,整整花了六个月时间(3/17/2008-9/15/2008). 而接下来摩根大通从拥有178米的现金储备到被市场差点抽空只花了不到两个星期.而当时高盛的总裁和摩根大通的说,你要是倒了,三十秒后就轮到我了.再接下去就是GE. 救市如救火,真是如此. 雷蒙总裁从身价一个比跌到全部身家只值六万八,因为他所有的财产都压在他感情深厚的这家银行身上.到最后他最痛心的还是眼睁睁看着自己干了一辈子(从小伙计变成总裁)的银行变成一摊废墟.在国会山听证会上他说自从雷蒙倒闭,他夜夜扪心自问到底哪一步走错了哪句话说错了,为什么到头来没有人肯救救我们.为什么政府救了所有的公司就是不肯救雷蒙?虽然知道雷蒙德倒闭和他的种种弱点密不可分,可是看到这里还是有点想掉眼泪. 很佩服包森这个财务部长和盖森纳这个纽约联邦储备的头头.真的是暴风雨中的顶梁柱,当机立断,有主见有能力,敢想敢干,能伸能缩.但是就连这样人尖子里的人尖子看着市场对他们拼了老命做成的一个个救市方案都不买账,一门心思溃不成军时也会恐惧.但是最终,能像他们一样或者跟随这样的人这辈子打一场这样的仗应该是很刺激很值得的吧. 另外几个小细节另我印象深刻: -所有人都是活在他们的黑莓荧光里.无论是华盛顿的财务部的人还是华尔街的人.不知道现在是不是大家还都用黑莓,有没有人用iphone, droid? 所有人有难都去求Warren Buffett来买自己的银行,每次他都会要求对方把条款价格财务报账发过来看,但是这个金融大拿拒绝了所有的人只买了高盛的帐,而且是在高盛求了多次,offer一次比一次好的情况下,终于接受了投资高盛五个比的开价.高盛当时的想法是,虽然砸锅卖铁让Buffett捡了大便宜,但是因为有了Buffett这个人人敬重的金融老滑头的名声在前面,再去别处借钱就容易的多得多.结果他们不仅靠着这条新闻从其他人那里又借到五个比,一直下跌的股票也回升了六个点. -华盛顿这些众议员参议员们可真够没用的.天天为些鸡毛蒜皮的小事吵来吵去.郁闷. 虽然后来媒体对包森讨伐的厉害,说他因为曾是高盛的总执行官所以想尽方法帮助高盛度过难关还大赚了一笔.其实包森的TARP方案在去年底已经为美国人民挣了五个比的纯利润了. 全书以JP Morgan总裁Jamie Dimon发给跟着小布希政府下台的包森 Paulson 的一段话结尾.我很喜欢.抄下来. When the post-bailout debate was still at its highest pitch, Jamie Dimon sent Hank Paulson a note with a quote fro a speech that President Theodore Roosevelt delivered at the Sorbonne in April 1910 entitled “Citizenship in a Republic”. It reads: “It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, and comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.” 罗斯福总统1910年四月在巴黎索邦大学的一个演讲,题目是“一个共和国的公民意识”: ”评论家并不重要;当一个强者跌到或者一个实干家做得不够完美时在一旁指手画脚的人并不重要.荣耀属于竞技场上的参与者,他的脸上是泥沙血汗,他不停出击,他犯错,他会不停跌到或者打空.因为没有任何努力不是伴随着错误和短处,但他至少在努力出击.他懂得出击时的兴奋,他懂得全力以赴,他为理想奋斗.他最终也许会享受胜利的喜悦,也许会失败但是至少他知道他曾经尽了全力.也因此他永远不会与那些冷漠胆小的从不知胜利或者失败的灵魂为伍.“ It was a remarkable quote for Dimon to have chosen. While Roosevelt’s words described a hero, they were deeply ambiguous about whether that hero succeeded or failed. And so it is with Paulson, Geithner, Bernanke, and the dozens of public- and private-sector figures who populate this drama. It will be left to history to judge how they fared during their own tie “in the arena.” Dimon选的这段话十分妙.虽然罗斯福描述了一个英雄,但是对这个英雄的成败却没有定论.我们并不知道包森,盖森纳,伯南克和其他十几个参与了这场“竞技”的金融和政界人物到底是成功还是失败.只有留给历史来评判. 推荐“恶人谷”上面的精彩评论(据说被墙了,会翻墙的同学有福了): http://www.fabvalley.org/bbs/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4991
经济 英文
The Voltage Effect 豆瓣
作者: John A. List Currency 2022 - 2
“Scale” has become a favored buzzword in the startup world. But scale isn’t just about accumulating more users or capturing more market share. It’s about whether an idea that takes hold in a small group can do the same in a much larger one—whether you’re growing a small business, rolling out a diversity and inclusion program, or delivering billions of doses of a vaccine.
Translating an idea into widespread impact, says University of Chicago economist John A. List, depends on one thing only: whether it can achieve “high voltage”—the ability to be replicated at scale.
In The Voltage Effect, List explains that scalable ideas share a common set of attributes, while any number of attributes can doom an unscalable idea. Drawing on his original research, as well as fascinating examples from the realms of business, policymaking, education, and public health, he identifies five measurable vital signs that a scalable idea must possess, and offers proven strategies for avoiding voltage drops and engineering voltage gains. You’ll learn:
• How celebrity chef Jamie Oliver expanded his restaurant empire by focusing on scalable “ingredients” (until it collapsed because talent doesn’t scale)
• Why the failure to detect false positives early on caused the Reagan-era drug-prevention program to backfire at scale
• How governments could deliver more services to more citizens if they focused on the last dollar spent
• How one education center leveraged positive spillovers to narrow the achievement gap across the entire community
• Why the right set of incentives, applied at scale, can boost voter turnout, increase clean energy use, encourage patients to consistently take their prescribed medication, and more.
By understanding the science of scaling, we can drive change in our schools, workplaces, communities, and society at large. Because a better world can only be built at scale.
你所不知道的冰冷经济真相 豆瓣
作者: 袁浩 中国发展出版社 2012 - 4
本书从宏观经济政策解读入手,先后分析了GDP保8背后的就业压力,国进民退的结构性原因,产业空心化的形成是关键要素的非市场化等众多经济社会问题。力图为读者展现一幅中国经济的宏观画卷,希望大家能够把握时代的脉搏,找到自己的位置。