一个出国旅行者正准备把信用卡递到酒吧侍者的手上,一个商务会议在一片握手和问好中开始,一个男人在公交车上咳嗽…… 这些本没有关联的事情被一种传染病联系在了一起。贝丝·埃姆霍夫从香港出差回到明尼阿波利斯,身体不适,她觉得这只是坐飞机时间太久的结果。可是不料,两天之后她却死在了急诊室。医生告诉她悲痛的丈夫,这个女人的死因不明。 很快,相似的病例相继出现:现实剧烈的咳嗽、随后是高烧不退,接着是昏迷、脑出血,最后就是死亡。更为可怕的是,这种症状的患者正在全世界范围内出现,明尼阿波利斯、芝加哥、纽约、伦敦、巴黎、东京、香港都出现了病例。这种传染病以不可预知的速度传播着,2个人、4个人、16个人,随后就是成百上千上亿人。医学无法解释和治疗这种新出现的病症,只能任由其肆无忌惮地传播。全球性的恐慌开始产生。

★ 比尔·盖茨无比期待的新知佳作。
★ 联合国前助理秘书长、埃博拉病毒发现者彼得·皮奥评价“一定不要错过”。
★ 曾光、石正丽、薛澜、万维钢等学者、作家联袂推荐。
★ 全球第一本新冠疫情研究者撰写的流行病学方法在各领域应用的大众图书。
★ 入选摩根大通年度图书书单（Ne xtList2021）
★ 入选英国《金融时报》两项年度最佳图书书单：“2020年度最佳图书（书评人评选）”（Best books of 2020: critics' picks）、“2020年度最佳科学图书”（Best books of 2020: Science）。
★ 英国《卫报》“2020年度最佳科学图书”（Best science books of 2020）。
★ 英国《泰晤士报》“2020年度最佳科学图书”（Best science books of the year 2020）。
★ 英国《新政治家》杂志“2020年度图书”（Books of the Year）。
★ 入选《华盛顿邮报》“最具2020年特色的图书”书单（The most 2020 books of 2020）
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突然爆发的金融危机、效果显著的网 络营销、广泛传播的政治谣言、劫持电脑并勒索高额赎金的电脑病毒，这些现象看似彼此无关，但却拥有一个共同的特 点：它们都是传染性事件。这并不只是一种通俗化的比喻，实际上，如果隐去标签，金融泡沫和麻疹的传播曲线几乎别无二致。
以历史上的重大疫情和科学人物为线索，《传染》讲述了传染病研究中的模型方法的发展历程。以此为基础，作者用一个个实例展示了如何用这些方法来研究和应对社会问题：用防控性病的方法降低金融危机的爆发风险；通过分析童话的“基因组”追溯其起源；用接种疫苗的策略降低暴力活动的发生率；通过找到社交网络上潜在的超级传播者来提高网络营销的效果……
无论是疾病还是社会现象，传染的前提都是人际网络，而模型方法的核心正是对网络的深入理解和调控。如今的我们身处在一个个复杂并相互影响的人际网络中，从传染的角度去审视和应对各类问题，或许能为我们提供全新的启示。

从非洲丛林的黑猩猩，到婆罗洲雨林的猎人追踪，作者将自己研究的亲身体验写成文字，带领读者一起踏上科学探索之旅。途中充满生物学奥秘，又常常险象环生，不仅逐层揭开医学史上最致命的病毒之一艾滋病毒的起源面纱，而且从病毒与宿主相互作用的角度探索了病毒在人类进化中所扮演的角色。
疾病社会史研究为我们揭开了医学史的另一个面目：疾病以超乎想像的方式影响了人类社会的方方面面，病原微生物以难以置信的方式干预了人类文明的进程。
本书从物种进化的角度整体观测人与病毒的关系，尤其是病毒在动物和人之间的传播，包括艾滋病的灵长类动物起源；审视当今社会经济全球化、人的生活方式和行为模式的变迁对新发再发传染病流行的影响。作者适时地提出公众对加强公共卫生能够做出贡献，每个人都可以从小做起。书中作者还指出媒体报道对公共卫生事件的重要影响。媒体报道可保障公众的知情权，也能告知公众采取必要的自我防护。
作者在本书最后乐观的展望，有朝一日可以宣布流行病末日的到来。但是，鉴于人类与病毒的共存关系，只要有人类存在，病毒末日就永远不会来临。如同地球自然风暴永远存在，病毒风暴也将永远存在。但是，随着国际社会和各国政府对传染病的防控投入不断增加，防治技术也得到了快速的进步，在大数据时代的背景下，人类应对病毒风暴的前景是乐观的。
中国疾病预防控制中心首席专家邵一鸣指出，只要政府、公共卫生机构和民间科学组织通力合作，尤其是得到公众的鼎力合作，人类完全有能力抵御各类病毒风暴的侵袭。

A highly infectious, deadly virus from the central African rain forest suddenly appears in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. There is no cure. In a few days 90 percent of its victims are dead. A secret military SWAT team of soldiers and scientists is mobilized to stop the outbreak of this exotic "hot" virus. The Hot Zone tells this dramatic story, giving a hair-raising account of the
appearance of rare and lethal viruses and their "crashes" into the human race. Shocking, frightening, and impossible to ignore, The Hot Zone proves that truth really is scarier than fiction.

No disease the world has ever known even remotely resembles the great influenza epidemic of 1918. Presumed to have begun when sick farm animals infected soldiers in Kansas, spreading and mutating into a lethal strain as troops carried it to Europe, it exploded across the world with unequaled ferocity and speed. It killed more people in twenty weeks than AIDS has killed in twenty years; it killed more people in a year than the plagues of the Middle Ages killed in a century. Victims bled from the ears and nose, turned blue from lack of oxygen, suffered aches that felt like bones being broken, and died. In the United States, where bodies were stacked without coffins on trucks, nearly seven times as many people died of influenza as in the First World War.
In his powerful new book, award-winning historian John M. Barry unfolds a tale that is magisterial in its breadth and in the depth of its research, and spellbinding as he weaves multiple narrative strands together. In this first great collision between science and epidemic disease, even as society approached collapse, a handful of heroic researchers stepped forward, risking their lives to confront this strange disease. Titans like William Welch at the newly formed Johns Hopkins Medical School and colleagues at Rockefeller University and others from around the country revolutionized American science and public health, and their work in this crisis led to crucial discoveries that we are still using and learning from today.
The Washington Post’s Jonathan Yardley said Barry’s last book can "change the way we think." The Great Influenza may also change the way we see the world.

How should we understand the fear and fascination elicited by accounts of communicable disease outbreaks that proliferated, following the emergence of HIV, in scientific publications and the mainstream media? The repetition of particular characters, images, and story lines - of Patients Zero and superspreaders, hot zones and tenacious microbes - produced a formulaic narrative as they circulated through the media and were amplified in popular fiction and film. The 'outbreak narrative' begins with the identification of an emerging infection, follows it through the global networks of contact and contagion, and ends with the epidemiological work that contains it. Priscilla Wald argues that we need to understand the appeal and persistence of the outbreak narrative because the stories we tell about disease emergence have consequences. As they disseminate information, they affect survival rates and contagion routes. They upset economies. They promote or mitigate the stigmatizing of individuals, groups, locales, behaviors, and lifestyles. Wald traces how changing ideas about disease emergence and social interaction coalesced in the outbreak narrative. She returns to the early years of microbiology - to the identification of microbes and 'Typhoid Mary', the first known healthy human carrier of typhoid in the United States - to highlight the intertwined production of sociological theories of group formation ('social contagion') and medical theories of bacteriological infection at the turn of the twentieth century. Following the evolution of these ideas, Wald shows how they were affected by - or reflected in - the advent of virology, Cold War ideas about 'alien' infiltration, science-fiction stories of brainwashing and body snatchers, and the HIV/AIDS pandemic. "Contagious" is a cautionary tale about how the stories we tell circumscribe our thinking about global health and human interactions as the world imagines - or refuses to imagine - the next Great Plague.

In just over 100 days, a new coronavirus has taken an unprepared world by storm, infiltrating every corner of the globe, sending entire nations into lockdown, killing thousands and infecting countless more. Across the world, governments are scrambling to react, hospitals are struggling to cope and an increasingly anxious public are starting to panic.
The world’s media is awash with data, information and misinformation. But what are the facts? What is COVID-19 and why is this strain of coronavirus so dangerous? What happens in our bodies when the virus attacks? How does this compare to previous pandemics? What do all the the numbers really mean, and how can data modelling help us look for an exit strategy?
This programme investigates the scientific facts and figures behind the biggest public health crisis in living memory, and explores the latest research from the frontline of the medical and scientific fightback.

《应用R软件和Epicalc程序包分析流行病学数据》前4章介绍R软件的概念和一些重要的基本元素，比如标量、向量、矩阵、数组和数据框架的简单处理方法。第5章介绍一些简单的数据分析。第6章介绍日期和时间变量，并在第7章通过一些数据集来得到完全的诠释，描述性统计量和行列表伴随自动生成的图形，使得重要的结果能得到更全面的展示。第8章通过行列表来观察暴发，对各种类型的风险评估比如风险比率，可以用数字和图形来显示。第9章数据集的分析得到进一步扩展，处理不同水平间的联系或0R值，并对如何分层作表，计算Mantel．Haenzsel的OR值，以及0R值的同质性检验进行了详细的解释，同时附以图形说明。结合图形，混杂这个概念能够得以更好的理解。

《流行病学原理:公共卫生实践中的应用(第3版)》由美国疾病预防控制中心编写，作为继续教育的自学教程的《流行病学原理——公共卫生实践中的应用》，主要介绍了在开展与健康相关的现状或事件的监测和调查时，所涉及的流行病学的基本原理、概念和基本步骤。通过本教材的学习，可以对公共卫生实践以及流行病学、生物统计学有一个基本的了解。本教材共包括六个章节，每一章节都提供了相关的练习和自我测验题，便于自学和检验学习效果。该书简单明晰，具有较强的针对性、可读性、可操作性，对公共卫生事件的监测和调查的实践具有实际的指导意义。