Causal inference is a complex scientific task that relies on evidence from multiple sources and a variety of methodological approaches. By providing a cohesive presentation of concepts and methods that are currently scattered across journals in several disciplines, Causal Inference: What If provides an introduction to causal inference for scientists who design studies and analyze data. The book is divided into three parts of increasing difficulty: causal inference without models, causal inference with models, and causal inference from complex longitudinal data.FEATURES:
- Emphasizes taking the causal question seriously enough to articulate it with sufficient precision
- Shows that causal inference from observational data relies on subject-matter knowledge and therefore cannot be reduced to a collection of recipes for data analysis
- Describes causal diagrams, both directed acyclic graphs and single-world intervention graphs
- Explains various data analysis approaches to estimate causal effects from individual-level data, including the g-formula, inverse probability weighting, g-estimation, instrumental variable estimation, outcome regression, and propensity score adjustment
- Includes software and real data examples, as well as 'Fine Points' and 'Technical Points' throughout to elaborate on certain key topicsCausal Inference: What If has been written for all scientists that make causal inferences, including epidemiologists, statisticians, psychologists, economists, sociologists, political scientists, computer scientists, and more. The book is substantially class-tested, as it has been used in dozens of universities to teach courses on causal inference at graduate and advanced undergraduate level.

A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence
"Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality--the study of cause and effect--on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

Written by one of the preeminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Judea Pearl presents and unifies the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual, and structural approaches to causation and devises simple mathematical tools for studying the relationships between causal connections and statistical associations. Cited in more than 2,100 scientific publications, it continues to liberate scientists from the traditional molds of statistical thinking. In this revised edition, Judea Pearl elucidates thorny issues, answers readers' questions, and offers a panoramic view of recent advances in this field of research. Causality will be of interest to students and professionals in a wide variety of fields. Dr Judea Pearl has received the 2011 Rumelhart Prize for his leading research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and systems from The Cognitive Science Society.