Theory of Value offers a rigorous, axiomatic, and formal analysis of producer behavior, consumer behavior, general equilibrium, and the optimality of the market mechanism for resource allocation.

"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

In 1630s' Holland thousands of people, from the wealthiest merchants to the lowest street traders, were caught up in a frenzy of buying and selling. The object of the speculation was not oil or gold, but the tulip, a delicate and exotic bloom that had just arrived from the east. Over three years, rare tulip bulbs changed hands for sums that would have bought a house in Amsterdam: a single bulb could sell for more than 300,000 at today's prices. Fortunes were made overnight, but then lost when, within a year, the market collapsed. Mike Dash recreates this bizarre episode in European history, separating myth from reality. He traces the hysterical boom and devastating bust, bringing to life a colourful cast of characters, and beautifully evoking Holland's Golden Age.

From one of the most influential scientists of our time, a dazzling exploration of the hidden laws that govern the life cycle of everything from plants and animals to the cities we live in.
Visionary physicist Geoffrey West is a pioneer in the field of complexity science, the science of emergent systems and networks. The term “complexity” can be misleading, however, because what makes West’s discoveries so beautiful is that he has found an underlying simplicity that unites the seemingly complex and diverse phenomena of living systems, including our bodies, our cities and our businesses.
Fascinated by aging and mortality, West applied the rigor of a physicist to the biological question of why we live as long as we do and no longer. The result was astonishing, and changed science: West found that despite the riotous diversity in mammals, they are all, to a large degree, scaled versions of each other. If you know the size of a mammal, you can use scaling laws to learn everything from how much food it eats per day, what its heart-rate is, how long it will take to mature, its lifespan, and so on. Furthermore, the efficiency of the mammal’s circulatory systems scales up precisely based on weight: if you compare a mouse, a human and an elephant on a logarithmic graph, you find with every doubling of average weight, a species gets 25% more efficient—and lives 25% longer. Fundamentally, he has proven, the issue has to do with the fractal geometry of the networks that supply energy and remove waste from the organism’s body.
West’s work has been game-changing for biologists, but then he made the even bolder move of exploring his work’s applicability. Cities, too, are constellations of networks and laws of scalability relate with eerie precision to them. Recently, West has applied his revolutionary work to the business world. This investigation has led to powerful insights into why some companies thrive while others fail. The implications of these discoveries are far-reaching, and are just beginning to be explored. Scale is a thrilling scientific adventure story about the elemental natural laws that bind us together in simple but profound ways. Through the brilliant mind of Geoffrey West, we can envision how cities, companies and biological life alike are dancing to the same simple, powerful tune.

This popular text provides an accessible guide to the application, interpretation, and pitfalls of structural equation modeling (SEM). Reviewed are fundamental statistical concepts--such as correlation, regressions, data preparation and screening, path analysis, and confirmatory factor analysis--as well as more advanced methods, including the evaluation of nonlinear effects, measurement models and structural regression models, latent growth models, and multilevel SEM. Special features include a Web page offering data and program syntax files for many of the research examples, electronic overheads that can be downloaded and printed by instructors or students, and links to SEM-related resources.

Analysis of Ordinal Categorical Data Alan Agresti Statistical Science Now has its first coordinated manual of methods for analyzing ordered categorical data. This book discusses specialized models that, unlike standard methods underlying nominal categorical data, efficiently use the information on ordering. It begins with an introduction to basic descriptive and inferential methods for categorical data, and then gives thorough coverage of the most current developments, such as loglinear and logit models for ordinal data. Special emphasis is placed on interpretation and application of methods and contains an integrated comparison of the available strategies for analyzing ordinal data. This is a case study work with illuminating examples taken from across the wide spectrum of ordinal categorical applications. 1984 (0 471-89055-3) 287 pp. Regression Diagnostics Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity David A. Belsley, Edwin Kuh and Roy E. Welsch This book provides the practicing statistician and econometrician with new tools for assessing the quality and reliability of regression estimates. Diagnostic techniques are developed that aid in the systematic location of data points that are either unusual or inordinately influential; measure the presence and intensity of collinear relations among the regression data and help to identify the variables involved in each; and pinpoint the estimated coefficients that are potentially most adversely affected. The primary emphasis of these contributions is on diagnostics, but suggestions for remedial action are given and illustrated. 1980 (0 471-05856-4) 292 pp. Applied Regression Analysis Second Edition Norman Draper and Harry Smith Featuring a significant expansion of material reflecting recent advances, here is a complete and up-to-date introduction to the fundamentals of regression analysis, focusing on understanding the latest concepts and applications of these methods. The authors thoroughly explore the fitting and checking of both linear and nonlinear regression models, using small or large data sets and pocket or high-speed computing equipment. Features added to this Second Edition include the practical implications of linear regression; the Durbin-Watson test for serial correlation; families of transformations; inverse, ridge, latent root and robust regression; and nonlinear growth models. Includes many new exercises and worked examples. 1981 (0 471-02995-5) 709 pp.

Most questions in social and biomedical sciences are causal in nature: what would happen to individuals, or to groups, if part of their environment were changed? In this groundbreaking text, two world-renowned experts present statistical methods for studying such questions. This book starts with the notion of potential outcomes, each corresponding to the outcome that would be realized if a subject were exposed to a particular treatment or regime. In this approach, causal effects are comparisons of such potential outcomes. The fundamental problem of causal inference is that we can only observe one of the potential outcomes for a particular subject. The authors discuss how randomized experiments allow us to assess causal effects and then turn to observational studies. They lay out the assumptions needed for causal inference and describe the leading analysis methods, including, matching, propensity-score methods, and instrumental variables. Many detailed applications are included, with special focus on practical aspects for the empirical researcher.

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The long awaited second edition of Dynamic Optimization is now available. Clear exposition and numerous worked examples made the first edition the premier text on this subject. Now, the new edition is expanded and updated to include essential coverage of current developments on differential games, especially as they apply to important economic questions; new developments in comparative dynamics; and new material on optimal control with integral state equations. The second edition of Dynamic Optimization provides expert coverage on:- methods of calculus of variations - optimal control - continuous dynamic programming - stochastic optimal control -differential games. The authors also include appendices on static optimization and on differential games. Now in its new updated and expanded edition, Dynamic Optimization is, more than ever, the optimum choice for graduate and advanced undergraduate courses in economics, mathematical methods in economics and dynamic optimization, management science, mathematics and engineering. New features of Dynamic Optimization will show students:advances in how to do comparative dynamics; how to optimally switch from one state equation to another during the planning period; how to take into account the history of the system governing an optimization problem through the use of an integral state equation; and how to apply differential games to problems in economics and management sciences.

In this book Steven Shavell provides an in-depth analysis and synthesis of the econoic approach to the building blocks of our legal system, namely, property law, tort law, contract law and criminal law. He also examines the litigation process as well as welfare economics and morality. Aimed at a broad audience, this book requires neither a legal background nor technical economics or mathematics to understand it. Because of its breadth, analytical clarity and general accessibility, it is likely to serve as a definitive work in the economic analysis of law.

为什么印度的整体社会发展缓慢，而软件出口却独领风骚？为什么美国的IT公司不断裁人，同时又引进外国雇员？作者基于在印度、澳大利亚和马来西亚长达两年的人类学实地调查写作此书，指出其中关键在于IT产业中的“猎身”体系。它是指一个以印度为中心的全球化劳动力配置和管理体系。

本书作者为奥地利学者耿爱德，分为上、下两册。全书重点论述了中国的金属硬币，分为银部、金部、铜部三编，对中国货币之流通、种类、市场分布、产地、外汇市场等方面进行了论述，勾勒了中国货币发展脉络，对后人解读、研究中国货币，尤其是金属货币助益良多。

Many advances have taken place in the field of combinatorial algorithms since Methods of Mathematical Economics first appeared two decades ago. Despite these advances and the development of new computing methods, several basic theories and methods remain important today for understanding mathematical programming and fixed-point theorems. In this easy-to-read classic, readers learn Wolfe's method, which remains useful for quadratic programming, and the Kuhn-Tucker theory, which underlies quadratic programming and most other nonlinear programming methods. In addition, the author presents multiobjective linear programming, which is being applied in environmental engineering and the social sciences. The book presents many useful applications to other branches of mathematics and to economics, and it contains many exercises and examples. The advanced mathematical results are proved clearly and completely.(from google book)