Practical and professional, this text bridges the gap between how undergraduate econometrics has traditionally been taught and how empirical researchers actually think about and apply econometric methods. The text's unique approach reflects how econometric instruction has evolved from simply describing a set of abstract recipes to showing how econometrics can be used to empirically study questions across a variety of disciplines. The systematic approach, where assumptions are introduced only as they are needed to obtain a certain result, makes the material easier for students, and leads to better econometric practice. It is organised around the type of data being analysed - an approach that simplifies the exposition and allows a more careful discussion of assumptions. Packed with relevant applications and a wealth of interesting data sets, the text emphasises examples that have implications for policy or provide evidence for or against economic theories.

Designed for those individuals interested in the current state of development in the field of investment science, this book emphasizes the fundamental principles and how they can be mastered and transformed into solutions of important and interesting investment problems. The book examines what the essential ideas are behind investment science, how they are represented, and how they can be used in actual investment practice. The book also examines where the field might be headed in the future, and goes much further in terms of mathematical content, featuring varying levels of mathematical sophistication throughout. End-of-chapter exercises are also included to help individuals get a better grasp on investment science.

The past twenty years have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals now routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is intended for PhD students, advanced MBA students, and industry professionals interested in the econometrics of financial modeling. The book covers the entire spectrum of empirical finance, including: the predictability of asset returns, tests of the Random Walk Hypothesis, the microstructure of securities markets, event analysis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, the term structure of interest rates, dynamic models of economic equilibrium, and nonlinear financial models such as ARCH, neural networks, statistical fractals, and chaos theory. Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.

Can You Predict the Future by Looking at the Past? Since accurate forecasting requires more than just inserting historical data into a model, Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3/e, adopts a managerial, business orientation. Integrated throughout this text is the innovative idea that explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future. Inside, you will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And you'll develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts. New features in the third edition include:
* An emphasis placed on the practical uses of forecasting.
* All data sets used in this book are available on the Internet, together with supplementary material. This can be found at http://robjhyndman.com/forecasting/
* Comprehensive coverage provided on both quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques.
* Includes many new developments in forecasting methodology and practice.

Enders continues to provide business professionals with an accessible introduction to time-series analysis. He clearly shows them how to develop models capable of forecasting, interpreting, and testing hypotheses concerning economic data using the latest techniques. The third edition includes new discussions on parameter instability and structural breaks as well as out-of-sample forecasting methods. New developments in unit root test and cointegration tests are covered. Multivariate GARCH models are also presented. In addition, several statistical examples have been updated with real-world data to help business professionals understand the relevance of the material.

Hayashi's "Econometrics" promises to be the next great synthesis of modern econometrics. It introduces first year PhD students to standard graduate econometrics material from a modern perspective. It covers all the standard material necessary for understanding the principal techniques of econometrics from ordinary least squares through cointegration. The book is also distinctive in developing both time-series and cross-section analysis fully, giving the reader a unified framework for understanding and integrating results. "Econometrics" has many useful features and covers all the important topics in econometrics in a succinct manner. All the estimation techniques that could possibly be taught in a first-year graduate course, except maximum likelihood, are treated as special cases of GMM (generalized methods of moments). Maximum likelihood estimators for a variety of models (such as probit and tobit) are collected in a separate chapter. This arrangement enables students to learn various estimation techniques in an efficient manner. Eight of the ten chapters include a serious empirical application drawn from labor economics, industrial organization, domestic and international finance, and macroeconomics. These empirical exercises at the end of each chapter provide students a hands-on experience applying the techniques covered in the chapter. The exposition is rigorous yet accessible to students who have a working knowledge of very basic linear algebra and probability theory. All the results are stated as propositions, so that students can see the points of the discussion and also the conditions under which those results hold. Most propositions are proved in the text. For those who intend to write a thesis on applied topics, the empirical applications of the book are a good way to learn how to conduct empirical research. For the theoretically inclined, the no-compromise treatment of the basic techniques is a good preparation for more advanced theory courses.

Integrating a contemporary approach to econometrics with the powerful computational tools offered by Stata, An Introduction to Modern Econometrics Using Stata focuses on the role of method-of-moments estimators, hypothesis testing, and specification analysis and provides practical examples that show how the theories are applied to real data sets using Stata.

As an expert in Stata, the author successfully guides readers from the basic elements of Stata to the core econometric topics. He first describes the fundamental components needed to effectively use Stata. The book then covers the multiple linear regression model, linear and nonlinear Wald tests, constrained least-squares estimation, Lagrange multiplier tests, and hypothesis testing of nonnested models. Subsequent chapters center on the consequences of failures of the linear regression model's assumptions. The book also examines indicator variables, interaction effects, weak instruments, underidentification, and generalized method-of-moments estimation. The final chapters introduce panel-data analysis and discrete- and limited-dependent variables and the two appendices discuss how to import data into Stata and Stata programming.

Presenting many of the econometric theories used in modern empirical research, this introduction illustrates how to apply these concepts using Stata. The book serves both as a supplementary text for undergraduate and graduate students and as a clear guide for economists and financial analysts.

This text provides a unified treatment of modern econometric theory and practical econometric methods. The geometrical approach to least squares is emphasized, as is the method of moments, which is used to motivate a wide variety of estimators and tests. Simulation methods, including the bootstrap, are introduced early and used extensively. The book deals with a large number of modern topics. In addition to bootstrap and Monte Carlo tests, these include sandwich covariance matrix estimators, artificial regressions, estimating functions and the generalized method of moments, indirect inference, and kernel estimation. Every chapter incorporates numerous exercises, some theoretical, some empirical, and many involving simulation. Econometric Theory and Methods is designed for beginning graduate courses. The book is suitable for both one- and two-term courses at the Masters or Ph.D. level. It can also be used in a final-year undergraduate course for students with sufficient backgrounds in mathematics and statistics.

The core methods in today's econometric toolkit are linear regression for statistical control, instrumental variables methods for the analysis of natural experiments, and differences-in-differences methods that exploit policy changes. In the modern experimentalist paradigm, these techniques address clear causal questions such as: Do smaller classes increase learning? Should wife batterers be arrested? How much does education raise wages? Mostly Harmless Econometrics shows how the basic tools of applied econometrics allow the data to speak.
In addition to econometric essentials, Mostly Harmless Econometrics covers important new extensions--regression-discontinuity designs and quantile regression--as well as how to get standard errors right. Joshua Angrist and Jörn-Steffen Pischke explain why fancier econometric techniques are typically unnecessary and even dangerous. The applied econometric methods emphasized in this book are easy to use and relevant for many areas of contemporary social science.
* An irreverent review of econometric essentials
* A focus on tools that applied researchers use most
* Chapters on regression-discontinuity designs, quantile regression, and standard errors
* Many empirical examples
* A clear and concise resource with wide applications

Public programs are designed to reach certain goals and beneficiaries. Methods to understand whether such programs actually work, as well as the level and nature of impacts on intended beneficiaries, are main themes of this book. Has the Grameen Bank, for example, succeeded in lowering consumption poverty among the rural poor in Bangladesh? Can conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Latin America improve health and schooling outcomes for poor women and children? Does a new road actually raise welfare in a remote area in Tanzania, or is it a 'highway to nowhere'?This book reviews quantitative methods and models of impact evaluation. It begins by reviewing the basic issues pertaining to an evaluation of an intervention to reach certain targets and goals. It then focuses on the experimental design of an impact evaluation, highlighting its strengths and shortcomings, followed by discussions on various non-experimental methods. The authors also cover methods to shed light on the nature and mechanisms by which different participants are benefiting from the program.For researchers interested in learning how to use these models with statistical software, the book also provides STATA exercises in the context of evaluating major microcredit programs in Bangladesh, such as the Grameen Bank. The framework presented in this book can be very useful for strengthening local capacity in impact evaluation among technicians and policymakers in charge of formulating, implementing, and evaluating programs to alleviate poverty and underdevelopment.

Did mandatory busing programs in the 1970s increase the school achievement of disadvantaged minority youth? Does obtaining a college degree increase an individual's labor market earnings? Did the use of the butterfly ballot in some Florida counties in the 2000 presidential election cost Al Gore votes? If so, was the number of miscast votes sufficiently large to have altered the election outcome? At their core, these types of questions are simple cause-and-effect questions. Simple cause-and-effect questions are the motivation for much empirical work in the social sciences. This book presents a model and set of methods for causal effect estimation that social scientists can use to address causal questions such as these. The essential features of the counterfactual model of causality for observational data analysis are presented with examples from sociology, political science, and economics.

The second edition of this acclaimed graduate text provides a unified treatment of the analysis of two kinds of data structures used in contemporary econometric research: cross section data and panel data. The book covers both linear and nonlinear models, including models with dynamics and/or individual heterogeneity. In addition to general estimation frameworks (particularly methods of moments and maximum likelihood), specific linear and nonlinear methods are covered in detail, including probit and logit models, multinomial and ordered choice models, Tobit models and two-part extensions, models for count data, various censored and missing data schemes, causal (or treatment) effect estimation, and duration analysis. Control function and correlated random effects approaches are expanded to allow estimation of complicated models in the presence of endogeneity and heterogeneity.
This second edition has been substantially updated and revised. Improvements include a broader class of models for missing data problems; more detailed treatment of cluster sampling problems, an important topic for empirical researchers; expanded discussion of "generalized instrumental variables" (GIV) estimation; new coverage of inverse probability weighting; a more complete framework for estimating treatment effects with assumptions concerning the intervention and different data structures, including panel data, and a firmly established link between econometric approaches to nonlinear panel data and the "generalized estimating equation" literature popular in statistics and other fields. New attention is given to explaining when particular econometric methods can be applied; the goal is not only to tell readers what does work, but why certain “obvious” procedures do not. The numerous included exercises, both theoretical and computer-based, allow the reader to extend methods covered in the text and discover new insights.

Advanced Econometrics is both a comprehensive text for graduate students and a reference work for econometricians. It will also be valuable to those doing statistical analysis in the other social sciences. Its main features are a thorough treatment of cross-section models, including qualitative response models, censored and truncated regression models, and Markov and duration models, as well as a rigorous presentation of large sample theory, classical least-squares and generalized least-squares theory, and nonlinear simultaneous equation models.
Although the treatment is mathematically rigorous, the author has employed the theorem-proof method with simple, intuitively accessible assumptions. This enables readers to understand the basic structure of each theorem and to generalize it for themselves depending on their needs and abilities. Many simple applications of theorems are given either in the form of examples in the text or as exercises at the end of each chapter in order to demonstrate their essential points.

This major new textbook from a distinguished econometrician is intended for students taking introductory courses in probability theory and statistical inference. No prior knowledge other than a basic familiarity with descriptive statistics is assumed. The primary objective of this book is to establish the framework for the empirical modelling of observational (non-experimental) data. This framework known as 'Probabilistic Reduction' is formulated with a view to accommodating the peculiarities of observational (as opposed to experimental) data in a unifying and logically coherent way. Probability Theory and Statistical Inference differs from traditional textbooks in so far as it emphasizes concepts, ideas, notions and procedures which are appropriate for modelling observational data. Aimed at students at second-year undergraduate level and above studying econometrics and economics, this textbook will also be useful for students in other disciplines which make extensive use of observational data, including finance, biology, sociology and psychology and climatology.

This book provides the most comprehensive treatment to date of microeconometrics, the analysis of individual-level data on the economic behavior of individuals or firms using regression methods for cross section and panel data. The book is oriented to the practitioner. A basic understanding of the linear regression model with matrix algebra is assumed. The text can be used for a microeconometrics course, typically a second-year economics PhD course; for data-oriented applied microeconometrics field courses; and as a reference work for graduate students and applied researchers who wish to fill in gaps in their toolkit. Distinguishing features of the book include emphasis on nonlinear models and robust inference, simulation-based estimation, and problems of complex survey data. The book makes frequent use of numerical examples based on generated data to illustrate the key models and methods. More substantially, it systematically integrates into the text empirical illustrations based on seven large and exceptionally rich data sets.

Quantile regression is gradually emerging as a unified statistical methodology for estimating models of conditional quantile functions. By complementing the exclusive focus of classical least squares regression on the conditional mean, quantile regression offers a systematic strategy for examining how covariates influence the location, scale and shape of the entire response distribution. This monograph is the first comprehensive treatment of the subject, encompassing models that are linear and nonlinear, parametric and nonparametric. The author has devoted more than 25 years of research to this topic. The methods in the analysis are illustrated with a variety of applications from economics, biology, ecology and finance. The treatment will find its core audiences in econometrics, statistics, and applied mathematics in addition to the disciplines cited above.