经济学
当音乐停止之后 豆瓣
After the Music Stopped: The Financial Crisis, the Response, and the Work Ahead
9.2 (5 个评分) 作者: 艾伦·布林德 译者: 巴曙松 / 徐小乐 出版社: 中国人民大学出版社 2014 - 7
美国著名经济学家、美联储前副主席、普林斯顿大学经济学教授艾伦•布林德最新力作;国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长,研究员,博士生导师,中国银行业协会首席经济学家巴曙松领衔翻译。
 一部真实描述美国金融危机历史及其教训的大师级著作,被《纽约时报》评选为2013年度十大好书,并荣获《金融时报》•高盛年度图书入选作品。
 中国人民大学校长陈雨露、中国证券投资基金业协会会长孙杰、美国前总统威廉•克林顿、美联储前主席保罗•沃尔克等联袂推荐
 中文版特别增加对话“从金融政策角度反思金融危机”,这是作者布林德教授与译者巴曙松研究员专门为本书准备的,是两位经济学家的强强联手和思想碰撞,对当下中国经济和全球金融政策的完善与优化,将起到很好的启示和借鉴作用
 湛庐文化出品。
名人推荐
布林德这本书以一个美国现代金融监管者的视角,以丰富的金融经验、第一手资料与数据,再现和分析了金融危机的台前幕后,其中对央行问题资产救助政策的分析尤见专业水准,而他总结的金融十诫和政策制定者的七步法,对当下全球金融界对经济和金融政策的完善与优化将起到很好的启示和借鉴作用。本书翻译工作的主持者巴曙松研究员与布林德教授专门为本书中文版准备的对话,特别值得推荐参考。
中国人民大学校长
陈雨露
布林德在《当音乐停止之后》中舍弃了连篇累牍,而是如同一个历史的旁观者,将金融危机的前因后果向读者娓娓道来,将应对政策分析得丝丝入扣,让人顿悟:危机来临,没有人可以置身事外。
中国证券投资基金业协会会长
孙杰
如果你想知道关于这场金融危机的方方面面——我们如何遭遇了危机,我们怎样躲过了衰退,我们为何没有完全复苏,我们现在还应该做些什么……去读这本书吧!这是一部大师级的作品——简单、直接、充满智慧。
美国前总统
威廉•克林顿
艾伦•布林德的《当音乐停止之后》一书是对金融危机的描述,他的分析和建议非常清晰。
美国国务卿
希拉里•克林顿
艾伦•布林德写作的《当音乐停止之后》是一本关于金融危机的审视分析之作。作者立足于自己的学术研究和独特见解,使得本书通俗易懂,可读性极强。无论你是否完全赞同其观点,支持其论点的力量都是明确的:危机4年之后,美国金融体系仍然缺乏必要的改革。
美联储前主席
保罗•沃尔克
艾伦•布林德是世界上最有名、最为平衡和最为明智的经济学家之一。他的个人经历包括克林顿时期的白宫经济顾问,美联储的副主席,以及《华尔街日报》的专栏作家。《当音乐停止之后》是一本关于2008年金融危机中究竟发生了什么,为什么发生,以及现在对未来意味着什么的最佳图书。
《华盛顿邮报》副总编
鲍勃•伍德沃德
关于这个话题的图书不少,我也读过很多,《当音乐停止之后》提供了关于本次金融危机为何发生、如何发生,以及究竟是什么的最权威版本。这本非常可读的分析类图书,让你完全明白了美国脆弱的房屋贷款和信用卡是如何突然坍塌与毁灭,重建工作是多么重要与困难,救治方案是如何被选择与实施。无论你是对金融危机的现在还是过去感兴趣,如果你想成为一名了解经济和政治如何交错酿成了这场全球大麻烦的专家,那么就去读这本书吧。
全球最大債券型基金太平洋投資管理公司CEO兼投資官
默罕梅德•艾尔-艾瑞恩
“错误”的行为 豆瓣 谷歌图书
Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics
8.0 (12 个评分) 作者: [美] 理查德·泰勒 译者: 王晋 出版社: 中信出版集团股份有限公司 2016 - 1
准备好改变你对经济学的看法了吗?
纵观理查德·泰勒的职业生涯,我们发现他的研究始终围绕着一个激进的观点开展:经济活动的主体是人,即拥有可预测行为且容易犯错的个体。在《“错误”的行为》一书中,泰勒讲述了他将经济学从高高在上的“象牙塔”带回现实的艰难之旅,其中的故事引人入胜,并且不乏诙谐幽默,彻底改变了我们对经济学、对自己以及对整个世界的看法。
传统经济学的假设前提是,理性的经济人是经济活动的主体。研究伊始,泰勒就意识到人类与《星际迷航》中斯波克那样不懂情感的理性人完全不同。不管是购买闹钟、出售篮球门票,还是申请抵押贷款,我们都会存在某种偏见,所做出的决定与经济学家假设的标准理性模型相去甚远。换句话说,我们的行为并不理性,甚至在传统经济学家看来是“错误”的。更重要的是,这种“错误”的行为会导致严重的后果。起初,经济学家并不屑于研究人们的错误判断及其对市场的影响,他们认为这只是一种引人发笑的“杂耍”,无足轻重。不过,如今这些关于人类行为的研究却帮助我们在工作和生活做出了更好的决定,也促使政府制定出更出色的政策。
泰勒通过人类心理学的近期成果以及他对动机和市场行为的真知灼见,引导读者学习如何在日渐复杂的世界中做出更理智的决定。从家庭理财到学院分办公室,从电视竞猜类节目到美国国家橄榄球联盟选秀,再到优步(Uber)这样的公司,泰勒向我们展示了如何将行为经济学应用到各个领域。
《“错误”的行为》一书中点缀着泰勒与传统经济学思想激烈斗争的有趣故事,以独一无二的方式探索了人类深层次的弱点。当经济学遇到心理学,碰撞出的火花将对个人、管理者和决策者产生深远而充满启发的影响。
Misbehaving 豆瓣
作者: Richard H. Thaler 出版社: W. W. Norton & Company 2015 - 5
Get ready to change the way you think about economics.
Richard H. Thaler has spent his career studying the radical notion that the central agents in the economy are humans—predictable, error-prone individuals. Misbehaving is his arresting, frequently hilarious account of the struggle to bring an academic discipline back down to earth—and change the way we think about economics, ourselves, and our world.
Traditional economics assumes rational actors. Early in his research, Thaler realized these Spock-like automatons were nothing like real people. Whether buying a clock radio, selling basketball tickets, or applying for a mortgage, we all succumb to biases and make decisions that deviate from the standards of rationality assumed by economists. In other words, we misbehave. More importantly, our misbehavior has serious consequences. Dismissed at first by economists as an amusing sideshow, the study of human miscalculations and their effects on markets now drives efforts to make better decisions in our lives, our businesses, and our governments.
Coupling recent discoveries in human psychology with a practical understanding of incentives and market behavior, Thaler enlightens readers about how to make smarter decisions in an increasingly mystifying world. He reveals how behavioral economic analysis opens up new ways to look at everything from household finance to assigning faculty offices in a new building, to TV game shows, the NFL draft, and businesses like Uber.
Laced with antic stories of Thaler’s spirited battles with the bastions of traditional economic thinking, Misbehaving is a singular look into profound human foibles. When economics meets psychology, the implications for individuals, managers, and policy makers are both profound and entertaining.
助推 豆瓣
作者: 理查德•泰勒 / 卡斯·桑斯坦 译者: 刘宁 出版社: 中信出版股份有限公司 2015 - 4
什么是我们一生中耗时最多、最费心力的事?是做出大大小小的决策。但是,我们往往深陷难以计数的偏见和非理性中,做出荒谬的判断。通过本书,你将了解什么是助推,以及助推如何帮助我们提升智慧,做出更明智的决策。
事实上,不需要强制性手段,也不需要硬性的规定,助推便能保证你同时收获“最大利益”和“自由选择权”。这股轻轻推动你做出最优选择的力量,就是“助推”。例如,政府颁布法令禁止人们食用垃圾食品不算助推,把低价的新鲜水果便捷地呈现在人们眼前,让人们主动地选择健康食品,这才是真正的助推。
政府需要用行为经济学方面的知识对政策进行优化设计,引导人们在教育、投资、卫生保健、抵押贷款及环境保护等领域做出让人们更健康、更富有、更快乐的决策,对社会乃至全球最有助益的选择。
Nudge 豆瓣 Goodreads
作者: Richard H. Thaler / Cass R. Sunstein 出版社: Yale University Press 2008 - 4
Every day, we make decisions on topics ranging from personal investments to schools for our children to the meals we eat to the causes we champion. Unfortunately, we often choose poorly. The reason, the authors explain, is that, being human, we all are susceptible to various biases that can lead us to blunder. Our mistakes make us poorer and less healthy; we often make bad decisions involving education, personal finance, health care, mortgages and credit cards, the family, and even the planet itself. Thaler and Sunstein invite us to enter an alternative world, one that takes our humanness as a given. They show that by knowing how people think, we can design choice environments that make it easier for people to choose what is best for themselves, their families, and their society. Using colorful examples from the most important aspects of life, Thaler and Sunstein demonstrate how thoughtful choice architecture” can be established to nudge us in beneficial directions without restricting freedom of choice. Nudge offers a unique new takefrom neither the left nor the righton many hot-button issues, for individuals and governments alike. This is one of the most engaging and provocative books to come along in many years. (20080518)
Mostly Harmless Econometrics 豆瓣 Goodreads
作者: Joshua D. Angrist / Jörn-Steffen Pischke 出版社: Princeton University Press 2009 - 1
The core methods in today's econometric toolkit are linear regression for statistical control, instrumental variables methods for the analysis of natural experiments, and differences-in-differences methods that exploit policy changes. In the modern experimentalist paradigm, these techniques address clear causal questions such as: Do smaller classes increase learning? Should wife batterers be arrested? How much does education raise wages? Mostly Harmless Econometrics shows how the basic tools of applied econometrics allow the data to speak.
In addition to econometric essentials, Mostly Harmless Econometrics covers important new extensions--regression-discontinuity designs and quantile regression--as well as how to get standard errors right. Joshua Angrist and Jörn-Steffen Pischke explain why fancier econometric techniques are typically unnecessary and even dangerous. The applied econometric methods emphasized in this book are easy to use and relevant for many areas of contemporary social science.
* An irreverent review of econometric essentials
* A focus on tools that applied researchers use most
* Chapters on regression-discontinuity designs, quantile regression, and standard errors
* Many empirical examples
* A clear and concise resource with wide applications
Game Theory 豆瓣
作者: Roger B. Myerson 出版社: Harvard University Press 1997 - 9
Product Description
Eminently suited to classroom use as well as individual study, Roger Myerson's introductory text provides a clear and thorough examination of the models, solution concepts, results, and methodological principles of noncooperative and cooperative game theory. Myerson introduces, clarifies, and synthesizes the extraordinary advances made in the subject over the past fifteen years, presents an overview of decision theory, and comprehensively reviews the development of the fundamental models: games in extensive form and strategic form, and Bayesian games with incomplete information.
Game Theory will be useful for students at the graduate level in economics, political science, operations research, and applied mathematics. Everyone who uses game theory in research will find this book essential.
Notes on the Theory of Choice 豆瓣
作者: David M. Kreps 出版社: Westview Press 1988 - 5
In these notes, Professor Kreps surveys the standard models of choice under uncertainty that lie at the heart of microeconomic theory. Choice and preference, ordinal utility, von Neumann-Morganstern utility and utility functions for money, and subjective probability and subjective expected utility are among the standard topics covered. These notes provide a rigorous but accessible introduction to the theory of choice for mathematically inclined undergraduates and/or graduate students in economics, finance, and related disciplines.
An Introduction to the Theory of Mechanism Design 豆瓣
作者: Tilman Borgers / Daniel Krahmer 出版社: Oxford University Press 2015 - 6
What is the best way to auction an asset? How should a group of people organize themselves to ensure the best provision of public goods? How should exchanges be organized? In An Introduction to the Theory of Mechanism Design, Tilman Börgers addresses these questions and more through an exploration of the economic theory of mechanism design. Mechanism design is reverse game theory. Whereas game theory takes the rules of the game as a given and makes predictions about the behavior of strategic players, the theory of mechanism design goes a step further and selects the optimal rules of the game.
A relatively new economic theory, mechanism design studies the instrument itself as well as the results of the instrument. An Introduction to the Theory of Mechanism Design provides rigorous but accessible explanations of classic results in the theory of mechanism design, such as Myerson's theorem on expected revenue maximizing auctions, Myerson and Satterthwaite's theorem on the impossibility of ex post efficient bilateral trade with asymmetric information, and Gibbard and Satterthwaite's theorem on the non-existence of dominant strategy voting mechanisms. Börgers also provides an examination of the frontiers of current research in the area with an original and unified perspective that will appeal to advanced students of economics.
"Tilman Borgers offers the first book-length introduction into the theory of mechanism design. Written in a very personal and masterful style, he carefully covers the main developments in theory of mechanism design-the theory of how to choose the rules of the game-over the past decades. It will be an ideal textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate courses for many years to come."
Dirk Bergemann, Douglass and Marion Campbell Professor of Economics and Chair, Yale University
"Tilman Borgers gives a beautifully lucid and elegant development of mechanism design in this wonderful book. His masterful exposition provides a unified and cohesive treatment of modern mechanism design, starting from first principles and working through topics at the leading edge of the research frontier. This book is a delight and an invaluable resource for those new to the field and experts alike."
Chris Shannon, Richard and Lisa Steiny Professor of Economics and Professor of Mathematics, University of California, Berkeley
"This book provides an integrated treatment of the theory of mechanism design by a leading practitioner in this area. It covers the core theory together with chapters on recent developments in robust mechanism design and dynamic mechanism design. The core theory is built up in an original and pedagogically successful way, starting with screening in chapter 2 and immediately using those tools to develop leading applications of Bayesian mechanism design-auctions, bilateral trade, and public goods-in chapter 3. These results can then naturally be adapted to dominant strategies in chapter 4. Chapters 5, 6, and 7 then deal with the general theories of incentive compatibility, Bayesian mechanism design, and dominant strategy mechanism design.
The first seven chapters of the book focus on the quasi-linear environments studied in most economic applications, with more general environments ('non-transferable utility') postponed to chapter 8. This ordering of material reflects not the historical development of the subject but a natural and effective path to learn the material. Borgers develops a unified treatment of core material without attempting to be exhaustive. Valuable endnotes at the end of each chapter then explain the historical context and relation to the literature more broadly. It will serve as an excellent textbook for graduate students and advanced undergraduates, and an invaluable reference for researchers."
Stephen Morris, Professor of Economics, Princeton University
资本的规则 豆瓣
Law of Capital
作者: 张巍(清澄君) 出版社: 中国法制出版社 2017 - 6
当前,资本市场是一个充满诱惑和浮夸的热词。并购、私募、私有化、跨境并购……专业人士欲以专业来开拓资本市场方向的业务,同时,资本市场却是“乱花渐入迷人眼”。本书作者以通俗易懂文采飞扬的写作风格,基于“中国的问题 世界的眼光”将资本市场的游戏规则抽丝剥茧,将现实发生的商战大戏纳入生动的分析之下。同时,将资本市场的关键词进行注释予以说明,堪称一本书轻松地读懂资本市场。
《资本的规则》是一本弹性较大的书,入门级的读者通过阅读能达到“一本书读懂资本市场”的扫盲效果;专业资深的读者能透过资本市场的波诡云谲发现其背后的规律与实质。
众多大咖:
丁颖华(国泰君安证券资本市场部董事总经理)
沈哲清(倍哲资本创始人、原巴克莱银行董事总经理兼中国金融机构部门主管)
苏龙飞(《新财富》主笔、《股权战争》作者)
周志峰(方达律师事务所创始合伙人)
徐明磊(上海证券交易所上市公司监管一部副总监)
彭冰(北京大学法学院教授)
蔡祥(博流资本合伙人、原德意志银行执行董事)
鼎力推荐!
国家竞争优势(上) 豆瓣
The Competitive Advantage of Nations
作者: [美] 迈克尔·波特 出版社: 中信出版社 2012 - 8
《国家竞争优势(上)》基于10个主要发达国家的研究,根据企业凭以竞争的生产率,迈克尔•波特第一次对此给出了全面的理论解释,也就是他在《国家竞争优势(上)》一书中提出的“国家竞争优势钻石理论”,一种理解国家或地区全球竞争地位的全新方法,现在已经成为国际商业思维中不可或缺的一部分。波特的“集群”观点或相互联系的企业、供应商、相关产业和特定地区的组织机构组成的群体,已经成为企业和政府思考经济、评估地区的竞争优势和制定公共政策的一种新方式。
全球印刷机产业、高级轿车、化工产业为什么集中在德国?
世界重要的药厂、巧克力食品与贸易业的基地,为什么在瑞士、瑞典等小国?
在个人电脑、软件、信用卡、电影等领域独占鳌头的企业,为什么大多在美国?
在瓷砖、雪靴、包装机械以及工厂自动化设备产业中,为什么是意大利的企业最强势?
主导了家用电器、照相机、传真机以及工业机器人等的产业,为什么在日本?
这一连串的“为什么”,应该如何解释呢? 从《国家竞争优势》一书中你能找到答案。
点击链接进入旧版:
国家竞争优势
贸易的猜忌 豆瓣
Jealousy of Trade: International Competition and the Nation-State in Historical Perspective
作者: [英]伊斯特凡•洪特 译者: 霍伟岸 / 迟洪涛 出版社: 译林出版社 2017 - 4
这些卓越文章的结集出版无疑具有重大的学术价值,洪特博士长期致力于研究18和19世纪政治经济与政治理论的互动,他在这一领域的研究是无与伦比的。他能够运用东欧、法国和英国的场景和观点来研究这一问题,他非常熟悉学术史的最新发展,这使他能够向英语学者更好地展现其研究成果。毫无疑问,他是这一领域的大师,该著作的出版具有令人激动的前景。
——J.G.A.波考克,《马基雅维里时刻》的作者
当下的世界,全球化所引起的贸易争端愈演愈烈,如何抵御全球化倒退和贸易保护主义盛行的趋势,我们可以从18世纪的国际市场竞争和民族国家间贸易冲突中寻找答案,这些经验和教训对于理解21世纪的全球化走向依然是至关重要的。
“贸易的猜忌”是指一种政治与经济的特定结合,当国际贸易中的成功变成国家的军事和政治生存的重要因素时,它就出现了。如今,它经常被称为“经济民族主义”,而在本书中,洪特将民族主义的商业政治学和18世纪的全球化,与商业社会的理论和政治的经济限制的启蒙思想联系在了一起。洪特不仅重构了市场社会性的支持者与其最尖刻的批评者之间冲突的显著特征,而且帮助历史性地定位了影响现代性出现的最为重要的观点。洪特的目标就是要回到大卫•休谟和亚当•斯密,因为通过重构他们的政治学,而无需参照当代意识形态,我们就有可能“在18世纪的国际市场竞争理论中发现政治上的洞见,而这对于21世纪仍旧是有意义的”。
The Proletarian Gamble 豆瓣
作者: Ken C. Kawashima 出版社: Duke University Press Books 2009 - 4
Korean workers in Japan constituted imperial Japan's largest colonial labour force in the 1920s and 1930s. Caught between the Scylla of agricultural destitution in Korea and the Charybdis of industrial depression in Japan, migrant Korean peasants arrived on Japanese soil amid extreme forms of precariousness in the labour and housing markets. For the migrant, becoming a worker in Japan was dependent on chance, on knowing or meeting the right people, on being in the right place at the right time. In "The Proletarian Gamble", Ken C. Kawashima maintains that contingent labour is a defining characteristic of capitalist commodity economies. He develops his argument by scrutinizing how the labour power of Korean workers in Japan was commodified, how they fought against the racist and contingent conditions of exchange, and how they combated institutionalized racism. Kawashima draws on previously unseen archival materials from interwar Japan as he describes how Korean migrants struggled against various recruitment practices, unfair and discriminatory wages, sudden firings, racist housing practices, and excessive bureaucratic red-tape. Demonstrating that there was no single Korean 'minority', he reveals how Koreans exploited fellow Koreans and how the stratification of their communities worked to the advantage of state and capital. However, Kawashima also describes how when migrant workers did organize, as when they became involved in Roso (the largest Korean communist labour union in Japan), and in Zenkyo (the Japanese communist labour union), their diverse struggles were united toward a common goal. In "The Proletarian Gamble", his analysis of the Korean migrant workers' experiences opens into a much broader re-thinking of the fundamental nature of capitalist commodity economies and the analytical categories of the proletariat, surplus populations, commodification, and state power.
“三农”问题与制度变迁 豆瓣
作者: 温铁军 出版社: 中国经济出版社 2009 - 1
《三农问题与制度变迁》出第一版时,他刚因实事求是地提出了与被农村基层的草根试验所证伪的那些主张不同的观点而遭到体制内“拆庙赶和尚”的尴尬境遇于是他说:写此书乃“立此存照”,读此书需“细看注脚”。《三农问题与制度变迁》出第二版时,虽然他从本土实践中提出的“二农问题”已经被国家领导人多次强调为“全部工作的重中之重”,他发起并推动的当代“新乡村建设”也已经家喻户晓;但他却再次遭遇尴尬于是他说:改此书乃“以正视听”,读此书则“斑全豹”。
中国土地制度史 豆瓣
作者: 赵冈 / 陈钟毅 出版社: 新星出版社 2006 - 7
本书摈弃断代研究的方法,针对中国经济史上的几个专题,研讨其演变的过程。其中包括土地所有权制、耕地面积的变动、人口与耕地的比率、农业经营方式、租伽制度等,不但提供贯通历史的纵向观察,也澄清一些以西方经济史观为基础来研究中国土地问题的错误观念。书中有许多有关土地制度的一手资料,辅以科学的分析,并提出独特的诠释与看法。

目录:

第一章 土地所有权制
一 上古的井田制
二 秦以后的土地私有制
三 限田与均田
四 政府及皇室直接经营的公地
五 禄田、勋田及赐田
第二章 耕地面积之变动
一 度量衡之变动
二 土地清丈与地籍
三 鱼鳞图册之研究
四 土地丈量的方法
五 整理历代耕地统计
第三章 人口与耕地
一 历史上的人中统计
二 人口循环的成因
三 人口与耕地的比率
第四章 耕地的分配
一 影响耕地分配的因素
二 历代耕地分配实况
第五章 农业经营方式之比较
第六章 历史上的经营地主
一 经营地主的演变
二 奴婢、部曲、雇农的身份
第七章 历史上的租佃制度
一 租佃制度之发展
二 地租的形态
三 佃农的身分与生活
第八章 结语
三农问题与世纪反思 豆瓣
作者: 温铁军 出版社: 生活·读书·新知三联书店 2005 - 7
如果我们把农民问题、农村和农业经济的微观研究,置于国家制度变迁和资源环境制约的前提之下,从国民经济发展的宏观高度看中国的问题,就可以形成一个研究农村制度问题的前提性的假设:中国的问题是“一个资源禀赋较差的发展中的农民国家,通过内向型自我积累追求被西方主导的工业化的发展问题”。在这个前提下讨论中国的“三农”问题,除了按照宪法原则应该遵循马克思主义政治经济学之外,需要借鉴和扬弃的理论主要是发展经济学和制度经济学。
八次危机 豆瓣
8.4 (22 个评分) 作者: 温铁军 出版社: 东方出版社 2013 - 1
内容简介:
"在人们通常的意识形态中,中国没有发生过经济危机,也不可能发生经济危机,最多只能算是经济波动,而不能算是危机。但作者认为,中国不仅发生过经济危机。而且中国自建国以来的六十年间,已经发生了8次经济危机,而这些危机均与国家工业化阶段性特征有关:在 “城乡”二元对立的基本体制矛盾约束下,工业化、城镇化以及整个体制的改革所产生的制度成本均向“三农”转嫁,因而城市的产业资本就可以实现“软着陆”,原有体制得以维持;而不能直接向农村转嫁的危机,就导致产业资本在城市“硬着陆”,引发政府财税金融、乃至整个经济体制的重大变革。
中国政府已经认识到“三农”问题对整个国民经济的重要作用,于是在2005年把“新农村建设”作为国家战略,连续增加数万亿投资以吸纳数千万“非农”就业的举措,最后成功地应对了2009年全球经济危机,实现了“软着陆”。
本书的主要观点是:“金融海啸”引发的全球危机,不仅是“金融化泡沫经济”所引起的,也是由“内含高成本上推”机制的西方现代政体在累积了大量的国家负债后产生的,因此中国人应引以为戒,加深对资本主义危机规律及其引发的内部乱像和外部地缘政治法西斯化倾向的认识。只有复兴生态文明,维持乡土社会内部化来应对外部性风险的综合性合作与自治,才是中国免于重蹈负债过高的现代化危机的合理选择。
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