Capitalism has never been a subject for economists alone. Philosophers, politicians, poets and social scientists have debated the cultural, moral, and political effects of capitalism for centuries, and their claims have been many and diverse. The Mind and the Market is a remarkable history of how the idea of capitalism has developed in Western thought.
Ranging across an ideological spectrum that includes Hobbes, Voltaire, Adam Smith, Edmund Burke, Hegel, Marx, and Matthew Arnold, as well as twentieth-century communist, fascist, and neoliberal intellectuals, historian Jerry Muller examines a fascinating thread of ideas about the ramifications of capitalism and its future implications. This is an engaging and accessible history of ideas that reverberate throughout everyday life.

Eli Heckscher (1879-1952) is celebrated for his contributions to international trade theory, particularly the factor proportions theory of comparative advantage in international trade known as the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. His work in both economic theory and economic history is notable for combining theoretical insights with a profound knowledge of economic history and the history of economic thought. In this volume, leading international economists assess the importance of Heckscher's work and its relevance to the contemporary practice of economic history.The contributors first discuss Heckscher's efforts to forge the discipline of economic history by combining both the historian's careful evaluation of sources and the economist's rigorous models. The Heckscher-Ohlin theory of factor proportions is described and tested empirically. Contributors then apply the theory to historical material, including Mediterranean trade in Biblical times, the economic effects of two periods of plague eight centuries apart, and tariff policy in 35 countries from 1870 to 1938. Heckscher's masterly work on mercantilism, the Continental Blockade, and Swedish economic history is also described and appraised in light of recent historical research.Contributors:Benny Carlson, Francois Crouzet, Lance E. Davis, Stanley L. Engerman, Ronald Findlay, Harry Flam, Rolf G. H. Henriksson, Eva, Einar, Ivar, and Sten Heckscher, Douglas A. Irwin, Ronald W. Jones, Deepak Lal, Hakan Lindgren, Mats Lundahl, Lars Magnusson, Joel Mokyr, Mats Morell, Patrick O'Brien, Kevin H. O'Rourke, Bo Sandelin, Lennart Schon, Johan Soderberg, Peter Temin, Jeffrey G. Williamson

This major new textbook from a distinguished econometrician is intended for students taking introductory courses in probability theory and statistical inference. No prior knowledge other than a basic familiarity with descriptive statistics is assumed. The primary objective of this book is to establish the framework for the empirical modelling of observational (non-experimental) data. This framework known as 'Probabilistic Reduction' is formulated with a view to accommodating the peculiarities of observational (as opposed to experimental) data in a unifying and logically coherent way. Probability Theory and Statistical Inference differs from traditional textbooks in so far as it emphasizes concepts, ideas, notions and procedures which are appropriate for modelling observational data. Aimed at students at second-year undergraduate level and above studying econometrics and economics, this textbook will also be useful for students in other disciplines which make extensive use of observational data, including finance, biology, sociology and psychology and climatology.

Are all film stars linked to Kevin Bacon? Why do the stock markets rise and fall sharply on the strength of a vague rumour? How does gossip spread so quickly? Are we all related through six degrees of separation? There is a growing awareness of the complex networks that pervade modern society. We see them in the rapid growth of the Internet, the ease of global communication, the swift spread of news and information, and in the way epidemics and financial crises develop with startling speed and intensity. This introductory book on the new science of networks takes an interdisciplinary approach, using economics, sociology, computing, information science and applied mathematics to address fundamental questions about the links that connect us, and the ways that our decisions can have consequences for others.

An Unabridged, Digitally Enlarged Printing: The Meaning Of Probability - Probability In Relation To The Theory Of Knowledge - The Measurement Of Probabilities - The Principle Of Indifference - Other Methods Of Determining Probabilities - The Weight Of Arguments - Historical Retrospect - The Frequency Theory Of Probability - The Theory Of Groups, With Special Reference To Logical Consistence, Inference, And Logical Priority - The Definitions And Axioms Of Inference And Probability - The Fundamental Theorems Of Necessary Inference - The Fundamental Theorems Of Probable Inference - Numerical Measurement And Approximation Of Probabilities - Some Problems In Inverse Probability, Including Averages - The Nature Of Argument By Analogy - The Value Of Multiplication Of Instances, Or Pure Induction - Some Historical Notes On Induction - The Meanings Of Objective Chance, And Of Randomness - Some Problems Arising Out Of The Discussion Of Chance - The Application Of Probability To Conduct - The Nature Of Statistical Inference - The Law Of Great Numbers - The Theorems Of Bernoulli, Poisson, And Tchebycheff, etc., etc. - Bibliography And Comprehensive Index

If economics is about the allocation of resources, then what is the most precious resource in our new information economy? Certainly not information, for we are drowning in it. No, what we are short of is the attention to make sense of that information.
With all the verve and erudition that have established his earlier books as classics, Richard A. Lanham here traces our epochal move from an economy of things and objects to an economy of attention. According to Lanham, the central commodity in our new age of information is not stuff but style, for style is what competes for our attention amidst the din and deluge of new media. In such a world, intellectual property will become more central to the economy than real property, while the arts and letters will grow to be more crucial than engineering, the physical sciences, and indeed economics as conventionally practiced. The new attention economy, therefore, will anoint a new set of moguls in the business world—not the CEOs or fund managers of yesteryear, but new masters of attention with a grounding in the humanities and liberal arts.
“I personally find this head-smackingly insightful. Of course! Money may make the world go ‘round, but it’s attention that we increasingly sell, hoard, compete for and fuss over. . . . The real news is that just about all of us—whether we participate in the market as producers or consumers—live increasingly in the attention economy as well.”—Andrew Cassel, Philadelphia Inquirer

Preface
It is 2050, and you are watching Who Wants to be a Billionaire? The contestant is one question away from the jackpot. Up comes his
question: “What is the name of the theory that scientists started developing at the beginning of the twenty-first century, and
which helped the world overcome traffic congestion, financial market crashes, terrorist attacks, pandemic viruses, and cancer?” The contestant cannot believe his luck. What an easy question! But he is so nervous that his mind temporarily goes blank. He starts to consider option A: “They are all still unsolved problems” – but then quickly realizes that this is a dumb answer. Instead, he uses his last lifeline to ask the audience. The audience responds unanimously and instantaneously with option B: “The Theory of Complexity”. Without hesitation, he goes with option B. The host hands him the cheque, and the world has yet another billionaire.
Pure fantasy? Maybe not.
In this book, we will go on a journey to the heart of Complexity, an emerging science which looks set to trigger the next great wave of advances in everything from medicine and biology through to economics and sociology. Complexity Science also comes with the
prospect of solving a wide range of important problems which face us as individuals and as a Society. Consequently, it is set to permeate through every aspect of our lives.
There is, however, one problem. We don’t yet have a fullyfledged “theory” of Complexity. Instead, I will use this book to assemble all the likely ingredients of such a theory within a common framework, and then analyze a wide range of real-world applications within this same common framework. It will then require someone from the future – perhaps one of the younger readers of this book – to finally put all these pieces into place.
Complexity Science is a double-edged sword in the best possible sense. It is truly “big science” in that it embodies some of the hardest, most fundamental and most challenging open problems in academia. Yet it also manages to encapsulate the major practical issues which face us every day from our personal lives and health, through to global security. Making a pizza is complicated, but not complex. The same holds for filling out your tax return, or mending a bicycle puncture. Just follow the instructions step by step, and you will eventually be able to go from start to finish without too much trouble. But imagine trying to do all three at the same time. Worse still, suppose that the sequence of steps that you follow in one task actually depends on how things are progressing with the other two. Difficult? Well, you now have an indication of what Complexity is all about. With that in mind, now substitute those three interconnected tasks for a situation in which three interconnected people each try to follow their own instincts and strategies while reacting to the actions of the others. This then gives an idea of just how Complexity
might arise all around us in our daily lives.
While I was writing this book, I had the following “wish-list” in my head concerning its goals:
1. To provide a book which a wide cross-section of people would want to read and would enjoy reading – regardless of age,
background or level of scientific knowledge.
2. To introduce readers to the exciting range of real-world scenarios in which Complexity Science can prove its worth.
3. To provide the book on Complexity that “I never had but always needed”. In other words, to provide an easily readable yet thorough guide to this important scientific revolution.
4. To provide a book that my kids could read – or rather, a book that they would actually choose to read all by themselves. This is a very important goal, since Complexity will likely become the science of interest for future generations.
5. To provide a book which is just as readable on a plane or bus as in a library. As such, it should also make sense when read in short chunks.
6. To provide a book which provides professional scientists,economists, and policy-makers with a new perspective on
open problems in their field, and to help stimulate new Complexity-based interdisciplinary research projects.
However, as I finish the book and offer it up to potential readers,I realize that the above wish-list can essentially be reduced to just
one item: I would wish that you enjoy reading this book, and that it might provide you with fresh thoughts and insights for dealing
with the complex world in which we live, and which our children will inherit.
There are some practicalities concerning the book’s content and layout which I would like to explain. The language, examples and
analogies are kept simple since the focus of the book is to explain what Complexity Science is all about, and why it is so important for
us all. I therefore avoid delving into too much detail in the main text. Instead, the Appendix describes how to access the technical
research papers upon which the discussions in the book are based, and gives a list of Internet websites containing additional information about Complexity research around the world. Having said this, I won’t pull any punches in the sense that I tackle all the topics
which I believe to be relevant. Part 1 of the book takes us through the theoretical underpinnings of Complexity, while Part 2
delves into its real-world applications. Some of the territory is only just beginning to be explored, with very few answers available
for the questions being posed. From the perspective of other scientific revolutions throughout history this might seem to be par
for the course. However we are not talking about history here –instead, we are looking at work which is emerging at the forefront
of a new discipline. For this reason we will be highlighting where such research is heading, rather than where it has been.
But why should you believe what I write about Complexity? This is a crucially important question given that Complexity Science is still being developed and its potential applications explored. Unfortunately many accounts of Complexity in the popular press are second-hand, i.e. they are typically written by people who have done little, if any, research on Complexity themselves and are instead reporting on their interpretation of
other people’s work. Given the relatively immature nature of the field, I believe that such indirect interpretations are potentially
dangerous. For this reason, I will base the book’s content around my own research group’s experience in Complexity. This has
various advantages: (i) it reflects my own understanding of the Complexity field; (ii) it represents what I believe to be the most
relevant and important topics; (iii) it will hopefully give the reader a sense of what it is like to be at the “pit-face” in such a
challenging area of research; and (iv) it ensures that any reader can challenge me directly on any claims that I make, and can
demand an informed answer. To facilitate this process of public scrutiny, a complete list of the relevant scientific research reports
is presented in the latter part of the Appendix. I also encourage any readers who wish to email me with questions, to do so at
n.johnson@physics.ox.ac.uk

A series of closely interrelated essays on game theory, this book deals with an area in which progress has been least satisfactory-the situations where there is a common interest as well as conflict between adversaries: negotiations, war and threats of war, criminal deterrence, extortion, tacit bargaining. It proposes enlightening similarities between, for instance, maneuvering in limited war and in a traffic jam; deterring the Russians and one's own children; the modern strategy of terror and the ancient institution of hostages.

After every crisis economists and policy analysts ask: can better models help prevent or ameliorate such situations? This book provides an answer. Yes, quantitative models can help if we remember that they are rough approximations to a vastly more complex reality. Models can help if we include realistic but simple representations of uncertainty among our models, and if we retain the pre-eminence of human judgment over the churning of our computers. Info-gap theory is a new method for modeling and managing severe uncertainty. The core of the book presents detailed examples of info-gap analysis of decisions in monetary policy, financial economics, environmental economics for pollution control and climate change, estimation and forecasting. This book is essential reading for economic policy analysts and researchers.

It is Shackle's view that human conduct is chosen with a view to its consequences. But these are in the future, which cannot be directly known. Expectation will confine itself to what is deemed possible, but this leaves it free to entertain widely diverse and rival hypotheses. How can such skeins of mutually conflicting ideas serve the formation of individual or institutional policy? This is the chief question this book examines.

Production is a complex system of interdependent activities, necessary to the system as a whole, which itself depends on the continuance of each individual activity that composes it. In such a system, resources must be committed to specifi c technological purposes long in advance to the ultimate sale of goods to the consumer.