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Japan's "Great Recession" lasted from approximately 1992 - 2007 and finally provided the economics profession with the necessary background to understand what actually happened during the US recession of the 1930s. The discoveries made, however, are so far-reaching that a large portion of economics literature will have to be modified to accommodate another half to the macro economic spectrum of possibilities that conventional theorists have overlooked. In particular, Japan's Great Recession showed that when faced with a massive fall in asset prices, companies typically jettison the conventional goal of profit maximization and move to minimize debt in order to restore their credit ratings. This shift in corporate priority, however, has huge theoretical as well as practical implications and opens up a whole new field of study. For example, the new insight can explain fully the precise mechanism of prolonged depression and liquidity trap which conventional economics - based on corporate profit maximization - has so far failed to offer as a convincing explanation. The author developed the idea of yin and yang business cycles where the conventional world of profit maximization is the yang and the world of balance sheet recession, where companies are minimizing debt, is the yin. Once so divided, many varied theories developed in macro economics since the 1930s can be nicely categorized into a single comprehensive theory, i.e., the Holy Grail of macro economics The policy implication of this new discovery is immense in that the conventional aversion to fiscal policy in favor of monetary policy will have to be completely reversed when the economy is in the yin phase. The theoretical implications are also immense in the sense that the economics profession will no longer have to rely so much on various rigidities to explain recessions that have become the standard practice within the so-called New Keynesian economics of the last twenty years.

This entertaining book describes the global history of economic fluctuations and business cycle theory over more than 300 years. It explains the core of the problem and shows how cycles can be forecast and how they are managed by central banks. The book concludes with detailed studies of how sub-sectors of stocks, bonds, hedge funds, private equity funds, gold, exchange rates, real estate, commodities, art and collectibles fluctuate over different categories of business cycles.

A detailed guide to overcoming the most frequently encountered psychological pitfalls of investing Bias, emotion, and overconfidence are just three of the many behavioral traits that can lead investors to lose money or achieve lower returns. Behavioral finance, which recognizes that there is a psychological element to all investor decision-making, can help you overcome this obstacle. In "The Little Book of Behavioral Investing," expert James Montier takes you through some of the most important behavioral challenges faced by investors. Montier reveals the most common psychological barriers, clearly showing how emotion, overconfidence, and a multitude of other behavioral traits, can affect investment decision-making. Offers time-tested ways to identify and avoid the pitfalls of investor bias Author James Montier is one of the world's foremost behavioral analysts Discusses how to learn from our investment mistakes instead of repeating them Explores the behavioral principles that will allow you to maintain a successful investment portfolio Written in a straightforward and accessible style, "The Little Book of Behavioral Investing" will enable you to identify and eliminate behavioral traits that can hinder your investment endeavors and show you how to go about achieving superior returns in the process.

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Trading Rules that Work introduces you to twenty–eight essential rules that can be shaped to fit any trading approach—whether you’re dealing in stocks, commodities, or currencies. Engaging and informative, Trading Rules that Work outlines the deeper psychology behind each of these accepted trading rules and provides you with a better understanding of how to make those rules work for you.

A History of Interest Rates presents a very readable account of interest rate trends and lending practices over four millennia of economic history. Despite the paucity of data prior to the Industrial Revolution, authors Homer and Sylla provide a highly detailed analysis of money markets and borrowing practices in major economies. Underlying the analysis is their assertion that "the free market long-term rates of interest for any industrial nation, properly charted, provide a sort of fever chart of the economic and political health of that nation." Given the enormous volatility of rates in the 20th century, this implies we're living in age of political and economic excesses that are reflected in massive interest rate swings. Gain more insight into this assertion by ordering a copy of this book today.
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利率史(第4版)

Designing application and middleware software to run in concurrent and networked environments is a significant challenge to software developers. The patterns catalogued in this second volume of Pattern-Oriented Software Architectures (POSA) form the basis of a pattern language that addresses issues associated with concurrency and networking.

The book presents 17 interrelated patterns ranging from idioms through architectural designs. They cover core elements of building concurrent and network systems: service access and configuration, event handling, synchronization,

and concurrency. All patterns present extensive examples and known uses in multiple programming languages, including C++, C, and Java.

The book can be used to tackle specific software development problems or read from cover to cover to provide a fundamental understanding of the best practices for constructing concurrent and networked applications and middleware.

About the Authors

This book has been written by the award winning team responsible for the first POSA volume "A System of Patterns", joined in this volume by Douglas C. Schmidt from University of California, Irvine (UCI), USA.

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There's a lot to be said for going back to basics. Not only does this Bible give you a quick refresher on the structure of open-source Linux software, it also shows you how to bypass the hefty graphical user interface on Linux systems and start interacting the fast and efficient way?with command lines and automated scripts. You'll learn how to manage files on the filesystem, start and stop programs, use databases, even do Web programming?without a GUI?with this one-stop resource.

Behavioral decision research has developed considerably over the past 25 years, and now provides important insights into managerial behavior. Bazerman & Moore’s Judgment in Managerial Decision Making, 7 th edition embeds behavioral decision research into the organizational realm by examining judgment in a variety of managerial contexts. This book includes information that is useful for anyone seeking further information on improving his or her judgment and decision making. Throughout, you’ll find numerous hands-on decision exercises and examples from the author's extensive executive training experience that will help you improve the quality of your managerial judgment.

Retaining the general organization and style of its predecessor, this new edition continues to serve as a comprehensive guide to modern and classical methods of statistical computing and computational statistics. Approaching the topic in three major parts--optimization, integration, and smoothing--the book includes an overview section in each chapter introduction and step-by-step implementation summaries to accompany the explanations of key methods; expanded coverage of Monte Carlo sampling and MCMC; a chapter on Alternative Viewpoints; a related Web site; new exercises; and more.

With a foreword by Clifford Asness, this book is a one stop guide to measuring the expected returns of a range of investments to enable long term investors to better manage and balance their portfolio.
For any investor, understanding the expected rewards that markets offer is central to long–term investment success. The traditional paradigm for assessing expected returns has focussed on historical performance and asset class management. However, Antti Ilmanen contends that this approach to investment decision–making is too narrow in its asset class focus and in the inputs used for assessing expected returns. He challenges investors to broaden their perspectives in two ways:
Excess returns should be harvested from diverse sources. Strategy styles and risk factors, as well as asset classes, are sources of return, thus warranting three–dimensional analysis of investments.
Any investment′s return prospects should be judged in a way that incorporates all knowledge, including historical experience, financial and behavioral theories, and current market conditions, without being overly dependent on any one of these.
Beginning with comprehensive introduction and overview, Expected Returns goes on to analyze the historical record, give a roadmap of terminology, explore rational and behavioral theories, and look at alternative interpretations for return predictability. A series of case studies provide detailed analysis of assets (equity, bond and credit risk premia, as well as alternative asset classes), dynamic strategy styles (value, carry, momentum, volatility) and underlying risk factors (growth, inflation, liquidity and tail risks), before moving back to broader themes, including time–varying expected returns, and seasonal, cyclical and secular return patterns.
Concluding with a series of investment lessons, Expected Returns is the complete guide for the long–term investor, providing wide–ranging empirical evidence, and a platform for forecasting the expected returns of an investment portfolio for asset allocation and portfolio balancing purposes.
From the Inside Flap
Expected Returns is a one–stop reference that gives investors a comprehensive toolkit for harvesting market rewards from a wide range of investments. Written by an experienced portfolio manager, scholar, strategist, investment advisor and hedge fund trader, this book challenges investors to broaden their minds from a too–narrow asset class perspective and excessive focus on historical performance. Coverage includes major asset classes (stocks, bonds, alternatives), investment strategies (value, carry, momentum, volatility) and the effects of underlying risk factors (growth, inflation, illiquidity, tail risks). Judging expected returns requires balancing historical returns with both theoretical considerations and current market conditions. Expected Returns summarizes the state of knowledge on all of these topics, providing extensive empirical evidence, surveys of risk–based and behavioral theories, and practical insights.
"This is the best book on active management ever written – and it achieves that status without mentioning a single stock or bond by name. Anyone who performs the rigorous analysis Ilmanen describes – admittedly a neat trick, since the world′s most sophisticated investors struggle to do it successfully – will beat the market."
Laurence B. Siegel, Former Director of Research, The Ford Foundation
"Antti Ilmanen shows the way forward for the investment management profession in this remarkable book. In a comprehensive and impressive way, he combines financial theory, historical performance data and forward–looking indicators, into a consistent framework for assessing expected returns and risk. His approach is both scientific and practical, based on decades of studies and his own trading experience. With a touch of personal wisdom and humility, Ilmanen′s book is a fascinating and educational journey into the future of investment management."
Knut N. Kjaer, Founding CEO of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund/NBIM and former president of RiskMetrics Group
"Ilmanen′s wonderful book manages to be exquisitely readable while covering just about every aspect of the investment process. Filled with many, many fresh and useful insights. This volume deserves to be read and then kept close at hand – because it is sure to be needed again and again."
Martin L. Leibowitz, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley, and former CIO, TIAA–CREF
"Job one for any investor is to estimate asset class returns. For the first time, Antti Ilmanen has assembled into one volume all of the tools necessary for this task: for the working money manager, a unique treasure trove of analytical techniques and empirical evidence; for the academic, a comprehensive guide to the relevant academic literature; and for the consultant, a blinding light with which to illuminate performance. Expected Returns is destined to occupy the front shelves of investment professionals around the world."
William J. Bernstein, author of The Intelligent Asset Allocator, The Birth of Plenty, and A Splendid Exchange, and co–principal of Efficient Frontier Advisors
"Antti′s synthesis of experience and theory has given us a book which fills a major gap in the literature on investing. Amazing, but true, this is the first book dedicated to the critical and challenging task of estimating how much we should expect to earn on our investments. This illuminating book, teaming with valuable insights that have never before been gathered under one roof, cannot fail to make the reader a more successful and discerning investor."
Victor Haghani, Associate Lecturer, London School of Economics, and former founding partner of LTCM
"Ilmanen has written a thorough and detailed analysis of one of the central issues in investing."
Ken French, Heidt Professor of Finance, Dartmouth College
"Investors′ decisions should be evidence based. Antti Ilmanen assembles a global body of evidence, and interprets it with insight. Read this book and you will improve your understanding of the future."
Elroy Dimson, Emeritus Professor of Finance, London Business School
"If I could choose only one book on active management, I would choose Expected Returns. This book is extremely thorough and well researched, yet direct and to the point."
Roger G. Ibbotson, Professor in the Practice of Finance, Yale School of Management, and Chairman and CIO of Zebra Capital Management

Critical Acclaim for The Practical Art of Suicide Assessment
"There is . . . no better guide for learning about and clinically assessing the phenomenology of suicidal states. Penned with a compelling elegance and charm, The Practical Art of Suicide Assessment is brimming with clinical wisdom, enlightening case illustrations, and a vibrant sense of compassion."-David A. Jobes, PhD, past president, American Association of Suicidology
"If I were asked to recommend only one book to equip clinicians to conduct the best possible suicide risk assessments, The Practical Art of Suicide Assessment would be it."-Thomas E. Ellis, PsyD, ABPP, past director, Clinical Division of the American Association of Suicidology
"A concise, carefully conceptualized, well-written book . . . highly recommended for all psychiatric residents and all other mental health students."-Journal of Clinical Psychiatry
"This outstanding book is informative, interesting, and clinically useful."-American Journal of Psychiatry
The Practical Art of Suicide Assessment covers all the critical elements of suicide assessment-from risk factor analysis to evaluating clients with borderline personality disorders or psychotic process. This highly acclaimed text provides mental health professionals with the tools they need to assess a client's suicide risk and assign appropriate levels of care using the highly acclaimed interview strategy for eliciting suicidal ideation-the Chronological Assessment of Suicide Events (the CASE Approach).
Now available in paperback, the leading book on suicide assessment also contains three important new appendices:
* How to Document a Suicide Assessment
* Safety Contracting Revisited: Pros, Cons, and Documentation
* A Quick Guide to Suicide Prevention Web Sites

Discover all the security risks and exploits that can threaten iOS-based mobile devices iOS is Apple's mobile operating system for the iPhone and iPad. With the introduction of iOS5, many security issues have come to light. This book explains and discusses them all. The award-winning author team, experts in Mac and iOS security, examines the vulnerabilities and the internals of iOS to show how attacks can be mitigated. The book explains how the operating system works, its overall security architecture, and the security risks associated with it, as well as exploits, rootkits, and other payloads developed for it. Covers iOS security architecture, vulnerability hunting, exploit writing, and how iOS jailbreaks work Explores iOS enterprise and encryption, code signing and memory protection, sandboxing, iPhone fuzzing, exploitation, ROP payloads, and baseband attacks Also examines kernel debugging and exploitation Companion website includes source code and tools to facilitate your efforts iOS Hacker's Handbook arms you with the tools needed to identify, understand, and foil iOS attacks.

The essential reference for financial risk managementFilled with in-depth insights and practical advice, the "Financial Risk Manager Handbook" is the core text for risk management training programs worldwide. Presented in a clear and consistent fashion, this completely updated "Fifth Edition"-which comes with an interactive CD-ROM containing hundreds of multiple-choice questions from previous FRM exams-is one of the best ways to prepare for the Financial Risk Manager (FRM) exam."Financial Risk Manager Handbook, Fifth Edition" supports candidates studying for the Global Association of Risk Professional's (GARP) annual FRM exam and prepares you to assess and control risk in today's rapidly changing financial world. Authored by renowned risk management expert Philippe Jorion-with the full support of GARP-this definitive guide summarizes the core body of knowledge for financial risk managers. Offers valuable insights on managing market, credit, operational, and liquidity risk Examines the importance of structured products, futures, options, and other derivative instruments Identifies regulatory and legal issues Addresses investment management and hedge fund risk"Financial Risk Manager Handbook" is the most comprehensive guide on this subject, and will help you stay current on best practices in this evolving field. The FRM Handbook is the official reference book for GARP's FRM(R) certification program.Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.
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金融风险管理师考试手册(第5版)

Your guide to becoming an explanation specialist. You've done the hard work. Your product or service works beautifully - but something is missing. People just don't see the big idea - and it's keeping you from being successful. Your idea has an explanation problem. The Art of Explanation is for business people, educators and influencers who want to improve their explanation skills and start solving explanation problems. Author Lee LeFever is the founder of Common Craft, a company known around the world for making complex ideas easy to understand through short animated videos. He is your guide to helping audiences fall in love with your ideas, products or services through better explanations in any medium. You will learn to: Plan: Learn explanation basics, what causes them to fail and how to diagnose explanation problems. Package: Using simple elements, create an explanation strategy that builds confidence and motivates your audience. Present: Produce remarkable explanations with visuals and media. The Art of Explanation is your invitation to become an explanation specialist and see why explanation is now a fundamental skill for professionals.

Understand the next level of marketing The new model for marketing-Marketing 3.0-treats customers not as mere consumers but as the complex, multi-dimensional human beings that they are. Customers, in turn, are choosing companies and products that satisfy deeper needs for participation, creativity, community, and idealism. In Marketing 3.0 , world-leading marketing guru Philip Kotler explains why the future of marketing lies in creating products, services, and company cultures that inspire, include, and reflect the values of target customers. Explains the future of marketing, along with why most marketers are stuck in the past Examines companies that are ahead of the curve, such as S. C. Johnson Kotler is one of the most highly recognized marketing gurus, famous for his "4 P's of Marketing" In an age of highly aware customers, companies must demonstrate their relevance to customers at the level of basic values. Marketing 3.0 is the unmatched guide to getting out front of this new tide sweeping through the nature of marketing.
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营销革命3.0:从产品到顾客,再到人文精神