Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts. The term 'decision analyst' covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently 'hybrid' models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais 'paradoxes', are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. This title includes: new theory developed systematically; many examples from diverse disciplines; realistic representation of severe uncertainty; multi-faceted approach to risk; and, quantitative model-based decision theory.

This book provides a broad, mature, and systematic introduction to current financial econometric models and their applications to modeling and prediction of financial time series data. It utilizes real-world examples and real financial data throughout the book to apply the models and methods described. The author begins with basic characteristics of financial time series data before covering three main topics: Analysis and application of univariate financial time series The return series of multiple assets Bayesian inference in finance methods Key features of the new edition include additional coverage of modern day topics such as arbitrage, pair trading, realized volatility, and credit risk modeling; a smooth transition from S-Plus to R; and expanded empirical financial data sets. The overall objective of the book is to provide some knowledge of financial time series, introduce some statistical tools useful for analyzing these series and gain experience in financial applications of various econometric methods.

Laboratory experiments with human subjects now provide crucial data in most fields of economics. There has been a tremendous upsurge in interest in this relatively new field of economics. This textbook introduces the world of experimental economics. Contributors including Reinhard Selten and Axel Leijonhufvud add to a book that sketches the history of experimental economics before moving on to describe how to set up an economics experiment and to survey selected applications and the latest methods. This user-friendly book demonstrates how students can use the lessons to conduct original research. With their freeflowing, discursive yet precise style, Friedman and Cassar have created a book that will be essential to students of experimental economics across the world. On account of its authoritative content, Economics Lab will also find its way on to the bookshelves of leading researchers in all fields of economics.

The book is a collection of essays in honour of Clive Granger. The chapters are by some of the world'leading econometricians, all of whom have collaborated with or studied with (or both) Clive Granger. Central themes of Grangers work are reflected in the book with attention to tests for unit roots and cointegration, tests of misspecification, forecasting models and forecast evaluation, non-linear and non-parametric econometric techniques, and overall, a careful blend of practical empirical work and strong theory. The book shows the scope of Granger's research and the range of the profession that has been influenced by his work.

This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the nonspecialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a "representation theorem" that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. In providing the most complete and robust defense of causal decision theory the book will be of interest to a broad range of readers in philosophy, economics, psychology, mathematics, and artificial intelligence.

The statistics profession is at a unique point in history. The need for valid statistical tools is greater than ever; data sets are massive, often measuring hundreds of thousands of measurements for a single subject. The field is ready to move towards clear objective benchmarks under which tools can be evaluated. Targeted learning allows (1) the full generalization and utilization of cross-validation as an estimator selection tool so that the subjective choices made by humans are now made by the machine, and (2) targeting the fitting of the probability distribution of the data toward the target parameter representing the scientific question of interest. This book is aimed at both statisticians and applied researchers interested in causal inference and general effect estimation for observational and experimental data. Part I is an accessible introduction to super learning and the targeted maximum likelihood estimator, including related concepts necessary to understand and apply these methods. Parts II-IX handle complex data structures and topics applied researchers will immediately recognize from their own research, including time-to-event outcomes, direct and indirect effects, positivity violations, case-control studies, censored data, longitudinal data, and genomic studies.

The first comprehensive account of the growing dominance of the intangible economy
Early in the twenty-first century, a quiet revolution occurred. For the first time, the major developed economies began to invest more in intangible assets, like design, branding, R&D, and software, than in tangible assets, like machinery, buildings, and computers. For all sorts of businesses, from tech firms and pharma companies to coffee shops and gyms, the ability to deploy assets that one can neither see nor touch is increasingly the main source of long-term success.
But this is not just a familiar story of the so-called new economy. Capitalism without Capital shows that the growing importance of intangible assets has also played a role in some of the big economic changes of the last decade. The rise of intangible investment is, Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake argue, an underappreciated cause of phenomena from economic inequality to stagnating productivity.
Haskel and Westlake bring together a decade of research on how to measure intangible investment and its impact on national accounts, showing the amount different countries invest in intangibles, how this has changed over time, and the latest thinking on how to assess this. They explore the unusual economic characteristics of intangible investment, and discuss how these features make an intangible-rich economy fundamentally different from one based on tangibles.
Capitalism without Capital concludes by presenting three possible scenarios for what the future of an intangible world might be like, and by outlining how managers, investors, and policymakers can exploit the characteristics of an intangible age to grow their businesses, portfolios, and economies.

How the history of technological revolutions can help us better understand economic and political polarization in the age of automation
From the Industrial Revolution to the age of artificial intelligence, The Technology Trap takes a sweeping look at the history of technological progress and how it has radically shifted the distribution of economic and political power among society’s members. As Carl Benedikt Frey shows, the Industrial Revolution created unprecedented wealth and prosperity over the long run, but the immediate consequences of mechanization were devastating for large swaths of the population. Middle-income jobs withered, wages stagnated, the labor share of income fell, profits surged, and economic inequality skyrocketed. These trends, Frey documents, broadly mirror those in our current age of automation, which began with the Computer Revolution.
Just as the Industrial Revolution eventually brought about extraordinary benefits for society, artificial intelligence systems have the potential to do the same. But Frey argues that this depends on how the short term is managed. In the nineteenth century, workers violently expressed their concerns over machines taking their jobs. The Luddite uprisings joined a long wave of machinery riots that swept across Europe and China. Today’s despairing middle class has not resorted to physical force, but their frustration has led to rising populism and the increasing fragmentation of society. As middle-class jobs continue to come under pressure, there’s no assurance that positive attitudes to technology will persist.
The Industrial Revolution was a defining moment in history, but few grasped its enormous consequences at the time. The Technology Trap demonstrates that in the midst of another technological revolution, the lessons of the past can help us to more effectively face the present.

'This book should be required reading in any senior - or graduate-level course on development economics, management of technology, S&T policy analysis and development, and related subjects. It will be of interest to policy analysts and developers, financial analysts, and others concerned with national, regional, local and global systems of innovation. Perez provides a fresh analysis of technological, financial and social booms and busts in an engaging and refreshing way. The book weaves a compelling new fabric of observation and theory, and shows that something can be done to learn from, anticipate, and deal constructively with, the tribulations of inter-linked technological, economic and social change. It does so concisely and in an idiom that bridges abstract economic theory with tangible human history and experience. If it is brought to their attention - as it should be - this compact book will give hope to those scholars, students and policy analysts who wonder what really happened in the cybertechnolgy/internet
gold-rush prior to 2001 and what could possibly lie ahead.'
- Morley Lipsett, Science and Public Policy
'Carlota Perez s thoughtful book. . . does an excellent job of showing the interplay between innovation and capital markets. Her theory is based on Schumpeterian economics - change is more important than equilibrium - and substantial empirical data. Her frame work, if accurate, has direct implications for our economy today.'
- Michael J. Mauboussin, The Consilient Observer
'It was Carlota Perez in the early 1980s, who designated the major changes in technology systems, such as mechanization, electrification or computerization, as ''changes of techno-economic paradigm'' a designation which has since been widely adopted. In this book she offers many new insights into these complex processes of social, economic and technological change. She traces the interactions between that part of the economy commonly known as ''financial capital'' and the evolution of technologies. Although this was an important aspect of Schumpeter's original work, it has been neglected by his followers, so that the book fills an important gap in the literature on business cycles and innovations. I most strongly commend it to all those attempting to understand the past and future evolution of technology and the economy.'
- Christopher Freeman, SPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex, UK and Maastricht University, The Netherlands
'Before I read this book I thought that the history of technology was - to borrow Churchill's phrase - merely ''one damned thing after another''. Not so. Carlota Perez shows us that historically technological revolutions arrive with remarkable regularity, and that economies react to them in predictable phases. Her argument provides much needed perspective not just on history, but on our own times. And especially on our own information revolution.'
- W. Brian Arthur, Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico
Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital presents a novel interpretation of the good and bad times in the economy, taking a long-term perspective and linking technology and finance in an original and convincing way.
By analyzing the changing relationship between finance capital and production capital during the emergence, diffusion and assimilation of new technologies throughout the global economic system, this seminal book sheds new light on some of the most pressing economic problems of today.
A bold interpretation of how the changing relationship between technological advances and financial capital shapes the patterns of economic cycles, this path-breaking book will provide essential insights for business leaders, policymakers, academics and others concerned with managing change in the world economy.

New York Times Best Seller
The epic successor to one of the most important books of the century: at once a retelling of global history, a scathing critique of contemporary politics, and a bold proposal for a new and fairer economic system.
Thomas Piketty’s bestselling Capital in the Twenty-First Century galvanized global debate about inequality. In this audacious follow-up, Piketty challenges us to revolutionize how we think about politics, ideology, and history. He exposes the ideas that have sustained inequality for the past millennium, reveals why the shallow politics of right and left are failing us today, and outlines the structure of a fairer economic system.
Our economy, Piketty observes, is not a natural fact. Markets, profits, and capital are all historical constructs that depend on choices. Piketty explores the material and ideological interactions of conflicting social groups that have given us slavery, serfdom, colonialism, communism, and hypercapitalism, shaping the lives of billions. He concludes that the great driver of human progress over the centuries has been the struggle for equality and education and not, as often argued, the assertion of property rights or the pursuit of stability. The new era of extreme inequality that has derailed that progress since the 1980s, he shows, is partly a reaction against communism, but it is also the fruit of ignorance, intellectual specialization, and our drift toward the dead-end politics of identity.
Once we understand this, we can begin to envision a more balanced approach to economics and politics. Piketty argues for a new “participatory” socialism, a system founded on an ideology of equality, social property, education, and the sharing of knowledge and power. Capital and Ideology is destined to be one of the indispensable books of our time, a work that will not only help us understand the world, but that will change it.

A compelling explanation of how the law shapes the distribution of wealth
Capital is the defining feature of modern economies, yet most people have no idea where it actually comes from. What is it, exactly, that transforms mere wealth into an asset that automatically creates more wealth? The Code of Capital explains how capital is created behind closed doors in the offices of private attorneys, and why this little-known fact is one of the biggest reasons for the widening wealth gap between the holders of capital and everybody else.
In this revealing book, Katharina Pistor argues that the law selectively “codesâ€� certain assets, endowing them with the capacity to protect and produce private wealth. With the right legal coding, any object, claim, or idea can be turned into capitalâ€"and lawyers are the keepers of the code. Pistor describes how they pick and choose among different legal systems and legal devices for the ones that best serve their clients’ needs, and how techniques that were first perfected centuries ago to code landholdings as capital are being used today to code stocks, bonds, ideas, and even expectationsâ€"assets that exist only in law.
A powerful new way of thinking about one of the most pernicious problems of our time, The Code of Capital explores the different ways that debt, complex financial products, and other assets are coded to give financial advantage to their holders. This provocative book paints a troubling portrait of the pervasive global nature of the code, the people who shape it, and the governments that enforce it.

本书论述了资本主义世界经济体系，即现代世界体系的起源与发展的历程。现代世界体系发端于欧洲的部分地区，后来不断发展，逐渐把世界其他一些地区纳入其中，直至覆盖全球。作者认为，21世界中期资本主义世界体系将让位于后继的体系（一个或多个）。我们不能预测他会是一个什么样的体系，但能通过我们目前政治的和道德的活动来影响其结果。本书享誉西方学术界，是西方大学生必读的参考书。它不是一般的世界近现代史著作，而是一部整体地阐述近5个半世纪世界历史进程的综合性宏观论著。

本书论述了资本主义世界经济体系，即现代世界体系的起源与发展的历程。现代世界体系发端于欧洲的部分地区，后来不断发展，逐渐把世界其他一些地区纳入其中，直至覆盖全球。作者认为，21世界中期资本主义世界体系将让位于后继的体系（一个或多个）。我们不能预测他会是一个什么样的体系，但能通过我们目前政治的和道德的活动来影响其结果。本书享誉西方学术界，是西方大学生必读的参考书。它不是一般的世界近现代史著作，而是一部整体地阐述近5个半世纪世界历史进程的综合性宏观论著。

本书以全新的视角阐述了15世纪以来资本主义世界体系自萌芽、产生，到发展、繁荣、衰落的历史过程。16世纪时，随着资本主义生产方式的发展，以西北欧为中心，形成“世界性经济体系”，即“资本主义的世界经济体”，它由中心区、半边缘区和边缘区三个组成部分联结成为一个整体的结构。自该体系形成之后，始终处于变动之中；其内部也经历了剧烈的斗争和不断的自我调节。该体系现已进入“混乱的告终”时期，势必要由一种具有更高生产效率和更合理的“收入分配制度”的新的世界体系取代。作者认为：到2l世纪中叶资本主义世界体系将让位于后继的体系，而我们目前的政治和道德的活动将对其结果有着重大的影响。本书的第一、二、三卷由高等教育出版社独家引进出版，第四卷尚待引进。

以横跨战中、战后两个年代而形成的框架为起码条件，高速增长在1955年以后正式地初绽花蕾，并在60年代达到顶峰。以1973年的石油危机为界线，增长率减至原来的一半，但与欧美各国相比较，日本仍旧保持住了高水准的增长率。于本卷，我们将追溯这一高速增长的开花及其以后增长所带来的积极与消极的影响。

第7卷的内容，主要论述从1937(昭和12)年中日战争爆发开始，历经1941年发动太平洋战争，1945年战败，联合国军开始占领日本，1951年签署《旧金山对日和约》，到1954年发生经济萧条这一动荡时期的日本经济。
“1 概述 1937—1954年” 试行概述这一时期的历史演变，也涉及所谓“大东亚共荣圈”和国民生活水平等问题．同时，在战时经济统制方面，介绍了以“经济新体制”论为代表的、批判资本主义而倡导“计划化”的经济思想，并认为，战后根据“民主化”思想实行的各项改革具有广泛而深远的“革命”作用。虽然本卷标题是根据这两个内容确定的．但为了充分体现时代意义，打算侧重论述第一个问题。