經濟學
The Cult of Statistical Significance 豆瓣 Goodreads
作者:
Stephen Thomas Ziliak
/
Deirdre N. McCloskey
University of Michigan Press
2008
- 4
"McCloskey and Ziliak have been pushing this very elementary, very correct, very important argument through several articles over several years and for reasons I cannot fathom it is still resisted. If it takes a book to get it across, I hope this book will do it. It ought to."--Thomas Schelling, Distinguished University Professor, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, and 2005 Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics "With humor, insight, piercing logic and a nod to history, Ziliak and McCloskey show how economists--and other scientists--suffer from a mass delusion about statistical analysis. The quest for statistical significance that pervades science today is a deeply flawed substitute for thoughtful analysis. . . . Yet few participants in the scientific bureaucracy have been willing to admit what Ziliak and McCloskey make clear: the emperor has no clothes."--Kenneth Rothman, Professor of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Health "The Cult of Statistical Significance" shows, field by field, how "statistical significance," a technique that dominates many sciences, has been a huge mistake. The authors find that researchers in a broad spectrum of fields, from agronomy to zoology, employ "testing" that doesn't test and "estimating" that doesn't estimate. The facts will startle the outside reader: how could a group of brilliant scientists wander so far from scientific magnitudes? This study will encourage scientists who want to know how to get the statistical sciences back on track and fulfill their quantitative promise. The book shows for the first time how wide the disaster is, and how bad for science, and it traces the problem to its historical, sociological, and philosophical roots. Stephen T. Ziliak is the author or editor of many articles and two books. He currently lives in Chicago, where he is Professor of Economics at Roosevelt University. Deirdre N. McCloskey, Distinguished Professor of Economics, History, English, and Communication at the University of Illinois at Chicago, is the author of twenty books and three hundred scholarly articles. She has held Guggenheim and National Humanities Fellowships. She is best known for "How to Be Human* Though an Economist "(University of Michigan Press, 2000) and her most recent book, "The Bourgeois Virtues: Ethics for an Age of Commerce "(2006).
Statistical Significance 豆瓣
作者:
Siu. L Chow
Sage Publications Ltd
1997
- 2
Models.Behaving.Badly: Why Confusing Illusion with Reality Can Lead to Disaster, on Wall Street and in Life Goodreads 豆瓣
作者:
Emanuel Derman
Free Press
2011
- 10
其它标题:
Models.Behaving.Badly
Emanuel Derman was a quantitative analyst (Quant) at Goldman Sachs, one of the financial engineers whose mathematical models usurped traders' intuition on Wall Street. The reliance traders put on such quantitative analysis was catastrophic for the economy, setting off the series of financial crises that began to erupt in 2007 with the mortgage crisis and from which we're still recovering. Here Derman looks at why people--bankers in particular--still put so much faith in these models, and why it's a terrible mistake to do so. Though financial models imitate the style of physics by using the language of mathematics, ultimately they deal with human beings. Their similarity confuses the fundamental difference between the aims and possible achievements of the phsyics world and that of the financial world. When we make a model involving human beings, we are trying to force the ugly stepsister's foot into Cinderella's pretty glass slipper. It doesn't fit without cutting off some of the essential parts. Physicists and economists have been too enthusiastic to recognize the limits of their equations in the sphere of human behavior--which of course is what economics is all about.
Models.Behaving.Badly. includes a personal account Derman's childhood encounter with failed models--the utopia of the kibbutz, his experience as a physicist on Wall Street, and a look at the models quants generated: the benefits they brought and the problems they caused. Derman takes a close look at what a model is, and then he highlights the differences between the success of modeling in physics and its relative failure in economics. Describing the collapse of the subprime mortgage CDO market in 2007, Derman urges us to stop relying on these models where possible, and offers suggestions for mending these models where they might still do some good. This is a fascinating, lyrical, and very human look behind the curtain at the intersection between mathematics and human nature.
Models.Behaving.Badly. includes a personal account Derman's childhood encounter with failed models--the utopia of the kibbutz, his experience as a physicist on Wall Street, and a look at the models quants generated: the benefits they brought and the problems they caused. Derman takes a close look at what a model is, and then he highlights the differences between the success of modeling in physics and its relative failure in economics. Describing the collapse of the subprime mortgage CDO market in 2007, Derman urges us to stop relying on these models where possible, and offers suggestions for mending these models where they might still do some good. This is a fascinating, lyrical, and very human look behind the curtain at the intersection between mathematics and human nature.
My Life as a Quant 豆瓣 Goodreads
作者:
Emanuel Derman
Wiley
2004
- 9
Emanuel Derman was one of the first physicists to move to Wall Street, and his career paralleled the growth of quantitative trading over the past twenty years. In My Life as a Quant, he traces his transformation from ambitious young scientist to managing director and head of the renowned Quantitative Strategies group at Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Derman’s tale recounts his adventures with quants, traders and other high fliers on Wall Street as he became the best-known quant in the business. He describes the struggles of research and his interactions with an assorted cast of famous scientists. He relates his impressions of some of the most creative minds on Wall Street, including Fischer Black, with whom he collaborated on the widely used Black-Derman-Toy model of interest rates. Throughout his story he reflects on the appropriate way to apply the refined methods of physics to the hurly-burly world of markets and the people that inhabit them.
Derman’s tale recounts his adventures with quants, traders and other high fliers on Wall Street as he became the best-known quant in the business. He describes the struggles of research and his interactions with an assorted cast of famous scientists. He relates his impressions of some of the most creative minds on Wall Street, including Fischer Black, with whom he collaborated on the widely used Black-Derman-Toy model of interest rates. Throughout his story he reflects on the appropriate way to apply the refined methods of physics to the hurly-burly world of markets and the people that inhabit them.
宽客人生 豆瓣
My Life as a Quant : Reflections on Physics and Finance
作者:
Emanuel Derman
译者:
张戬
中信出版社
2007
- 7
本书获选《商业周刊》十大好书。
2000年国际金融工程师协会年度金融工程师,2002年入选《风险》杂志名人堂。
自资本资产定价模型和布莱克-肖尔斯模型被发明之后,宽客成为华尔街的新宠,因为投资银行和基金公司必须采用日益复杂的数量交易策略和衍生产品。我几乎每天都与这些受过科学训练的宽客们打交道。本书作者伊曼纽尔·德曼是华尔街的顶级宽客,至今仍享盛名。他是首批转战华尔街的高能实验物理学家之一,在十几年中创建了对今天影响深远的众多金融交易模型。本书精彩纷呈,分析了物理学与金融学之间的关联和不同,讲述了许多物理学巨匠和金融学大师的故事;既可作为通俗金融读物,也可供希望了解宽客之道的理工科入学生,研究生和各界人士欣赏。——清华大学金融学特聘教授,巴克莱银行中国研究主管 黄海洲
这部自传精彩如同小说。关于德曼从数学物理学者转战金融领域、从高盛跳到所罗门兄弟公闭的传奇故事,告诉了我们如何开动脑筋让财富自己生长。——诺贝尔经济学奖得主 保罗·萨缪尔森
这是本精彩之极的门传,它记叙了这样一个特別的时代,在这个时代,科学家发现了华尔街,而华尔街也发现了科学家。——麻省理工学院斯隆商学院弗兰科·莫迪里亚尼讲席教授 史蒂夫·罗斯
从“至刚”的物理学家转向“至柔”的金融家的心路历程……我还没有见过其他哪本著述能如此完美地跨越这两种文化。——《随机致富的傻瓜》作者 纳西姆·塔勒布
华尔街早已不是古尔德、摩根那种老式的神秘商人的做派了。近年来,投资银行和对冲基金纷纷采用数量交易策略和衍生产品组合,招募名牌大学的理工科博士和教授,为复杂多变的产品建模并控制风险。今天,几乎所有公司的财富和市场的稳定性都建筑于数学模型上。“宽客”(Quant)——受过严格科学训练的数量金融师——正是这些模型的创建者,他们是华尔街舞台上未来的明星。
在形形色色的宽客中,没有人比伊曼纽尔·德曼更出名。他是首批“移民”华尔街的高能实验物理学家之一,历经十七年的商海生涯,逐渐成为高盛公司数量策略小组的领导人,并与布莱克等人合作创建了对今天影响深远的众多金融交易模型。
本书叙述了德曼从物理学家到金融宽客的人生跨越,他曾是爱因斯坦、薛定谔、李政道等物理学巨匠的门徒,进入金融领域后又与众多分析师、交易员和基金经理人共事。作者力图拨开重重迷雾,探索物理与金融的相似之道与诡异之处,借此让读者从局内人的角度一窥华尔街的另类群体——宽客们——的人生图卷。
2000年国际金融工程师协会年度金融工程师,2002年入选《风险》杂志名人堂。
自资本资产定价模型和布莱克-肖尔斯模型被发明之后,宽客成为华尔街的新宠,因为投资银行和基金公司必须采用日益复杂的数量交易策略和衍生产品。我几乎每天都与这些受过科学训练的宽客们打交道。本书作者伊曼纽尔·德曼是华尔街的顶级宽客,至今仍享盛名。他是首批转战华尔街的高能实验物理学家之一,在十几年中创建了对今天影响深远的众多金融交易模型。本书精彩纷呈,分析了物理学与金融学之间的关联和不同,讲述了许多物理学巨匠和金融学大师的故事;既可作为通俗金融读物,也可供希望了解宽客之道的理工科入学生,研究生和各界人士欣赏。——清华大学金融学特聘教授,巴克莱银行中国研究主管 黄海洲
这部自传精彩如同小说。关于德曼从数学物理学者转战金融领域、从高盛跳到所罗门兄弟公闭的传奇故事,告诉了我们如何开动脑筋让财富自己生长。——诺贝尔经济学奖得主 保罗·萨缪尔森
这是本精彩之极的门传,它记叙了这样一个特別的时代,在这个时代,科学家发现了华尔街,而华尔街也发现了科学家。——麻省理工学院斯隆商学院弗兰科·莫迪里亚尼讲席教授 史蒂夫·罗斯
从“至刚”的物理学家转向“至柔”的金融家的心路历程……我还没有见过其他哪本著述能如此完美地跨越这两种文化。——《随机致富的傻瓜》作者 纳西姆·塔勒布
华尔街早已不是古尔德、摩根那种老式的神秘商人的做派了。近年来,投资银行和对冲基金纷纷采用数量交易策略和衍生产品组合,招募名牌大学的理工科博士和教授,为复杂多变的产品建模并控制风险。今天,几乎所有公司的财富和市场的稳定性都建筑于数学模型上。“宽客”(Quant)——受过严格科学训练的数量金融师——正是这些模型的创建者,他们是华尔街舞台上未来的明星。
在形形色色的宽客中,没有人比伊曼纽尔·德曼更出名。他是首批“移民”华尔街的高能实验物理学家之一,历经十七年的商海生涯,逐渐成为高盛公司数量策略小组的领导人,并与布莱克等人合作创建了对今天影响深远的众多金融交易模型。
本书叙述了德曼从物理学家到金融宽客的人生跨越,他曾是爱因斯坦、薛定谔、李政道等物理学巨匠的门徒,进入金融领域后又与众多分析师、交易员和基金经理人共事。作者力图拨开重重迷雾,探索物理与金融的相似之道与诡异之处,借此让读者从局内人的角度一窥华尔街的另类群体——宽客们——的人生图卷。
A Primer in Game Theory 豆瓣
作者:
Robert Gibbons
Pearson Academic
1992
- 6
Game theory has revolutionized economics research and teaching during the past two decades. There are few undergraduate or graduate courses in which it does not form a core component. Game theory is the study of multi-decision problems and such problems occur frequently in economics. Industrial organization provides many examples where firms must consider the reactions of others. But there are many other areas in which it is applicable - from individual workers vying for promotion to countries competing or colluding to choose trade policies. Bob Gibbons provides an introduction to the branches of game theory that have been widely applied in economics. He emphasizes the applications as much as the pure theory. This not only helps to teach the theory, but also illustrates the process of model building - the process of translating an informal description of a multi-person decision situation into a formal, game theoretic problem to be analyzed. The approach aims to serve as both an introduction to those who will go on to specialize as pure game-theorists. It also introduces game theory to those who will later construct (or at least use) game-theoretic models in applied fields of economics.
The Theory of Industrial Organization 豆瓣
作者:
Jean Tirole
The MIT Press
1988
- 1
The Theory of Industrial Organization is the first primary text to treat the new industrial organization at the advanced-undergraduate and graduate level. Rigorously analytical and filled with exercises coded to indicate level of difficulty, it provides a unified and modern treatment of the field with accessible models that are simplified to highlight robust economic ideas while working at an intuitive level.To aid students at different levels, each chapter is divided into a main text and supplementary section containing more advanced material. Each chapter opens with elementary models and builds on this base to incorporate current research in a coherent synthesis.Tirole begins with a background discussion of the theory of the firm. In part I he develops the modern theory of monopoly, addressing single product and multi product pricing, static and intertemporal price discrimination, quality choice, reputation, and vertical restraints.In part II, Tirole takes up strategic interaction between firms, starting with a novel treatment of the Bertrand-Cournot interdependent pricing problem. He studies how capacity constraints, repeated interaction, product positioning, advertising, and asymmetric information affect competition or tacit collusion. He then develops topics having to do with long term competition, including barriers to entry, contestability, exit, and research and development. He concludes with a "game theory user's manual" and a section of review exercises.Jean Tirole is a Professor of Economics at MIT
Game Theory 豆瓣
作者:
Drew Fudenberg
/
Jean Tirole
The MIT Press
1991
- 8
This advanced text introduces the principles of noncooperative game theory - including strategic form games, Nash equilibria, subgame perfection, repeated games, and games of incomplete information - in a direct and uncomplicated style that will acquaint students with the broad spectrum of the field while highlighting and explaining what they need to know at any given point. The analytic material is accompanied by many applications, examples, and exercises.The theory of noncooperative games studies the behavior of agents in any situation where each agent's optimal choice may depend on a forecast of the opponents' choices. "Noncooperative" refers to choices that are based on the participant's perceived selfinterest. Although game theory has been applied to many fields, Fudenberg and Tirole focus on the kinds of game theory that have been most useful in the study of economic problems. They also include some applications to political science. The fourteen chapters are grouped in parts that cover static games of complete information, dynamic games of complete information, static games of incomplete information, dynamic games of incomplete information, and advanced topics.Drew Fudenberg and Jean Tirole are Professors of Economics at MIT.
The Theory of Corporate Finance 豆瓣 Goodreads
The Theory of Corporate Finance
作者:
Jean Tirole
Princeton University Press
2005
- 1
The past twenty years have seen great theoretical and empirical advances in the field of corporate finance. Whereas, once the subject addressed mainly the financing of corporations - equity, debt, and valuation - today it also embraces crucial issues of governance, liquidity, risk management, relationships between banks and corporations, and the macroeconomic impact of corporations. However, this progress has left in its wake a jumbled array of concepts and models that students are often hard put to make sense of. Here, one of the world's leading economists offers a lucid, unified, and comprehensive introduction to modern corporate finance theory. Jean Tirole builds his landmark book around a single model, using an incentive or contract theory approach. Filling a major gap in the field, "The Theory of Corporate Finance" is an indispensable resource for graduate and advanced undergraduate students as well as researchers of corporate finance, industrial organization, political economy, development, and macroeconomics. Tirole conveys the organizing principles that structure the analysis of today's key management and public policy issues, such as the reform of corporate governance and auditing; the role of private equity, financial markets, and takeovers; the efficient determination of leverage, dividends, liquidity, and risk management; and the design of managerial incentive packages. He weaves empirical studies into the book's theoretical analysis. And he places the corporation in its broader environment, both microeconomic and macroeconomic, and examines the two-way interaction between the corporate environment and institutions. Setting a new milestone in the field, "The Theory of Corporate Finance" will be the authoritative text for years to come.
Die Basar-Ökonomie 豆瓣
作者:
Hans-Werner Sinn
Ullstein Taschenbuch
2007
- 4
Kasino-Kapitalismus 豆瓣
作者:
Hans-Werner Sinn
Ullstein Taschenbuch
2010
- 5
Die Target-Falle 豆瓣
作者:
Hans-Werner Sinn
Carl Hanser Verlag GmbH & CO. KG
2012
- 10
Das grüne Paradoxon 豆瓣
作者:
Hans-Werner Sinn
Ullstein Taschenbuch
2012
- 2
Ist Deutschland Noch Zu Retten? 豆瓣
作者:
Hans-Werner Sinn
Imprint unknown
2004
The World That Trade Created 豆瓣
作者:
Kenneth Pomeranz
/
Steven Topik
M.E.Sharpe
2005
- 10
The Calculus of Consent 豆瓣
作者:
James M. Buchanan
/
Gordon Tullock
University of Michigan Press
1962
- 3
A scientific study of the political and economic factors influencing democratic decision making
15至18世纪的物质文明、经济和资本主义(第一卷) 豆瓣
作者:
[法国] 费尔南·布罗代尔
译者:
顾良
/
施康强
生活·读书·新知三联书店
1992
- 11
15至18世纪的物质文明、经济和资本主义(全三卷) 豆瓣
作者:
[法国] 费尔南·布罗代尔
译者:
顾良
/
施康强
生活·读书·新知三联书店
2002
- 5
《15至18世纪的物质文明、经济和资本主义》分为“日常生活的结构”、“形形色色的交换”和“世界的时间”三卷。分别描述了15至18世纪世界范围内的人口、粮食、食品、能源、货币、城市等;分析了交易的根据、市场、生产、资本主义组织、社会各统治集团;叙述了先后控制世界经济的国家和地区的国内外市场及经济特点,最后以英国工业革命结束。
十五至十八世纪的物质文明、经济与资本主义--第三卷--世界的时间 豆瓣
Civilisation matérielle, économie et capitalisme, XVe-XVIIIe
作者:
[法国] 费尔南·布罗代尔
译者:
施康强/等
生活·读书·新知三联书店
1996
- 2
《15-18世纪的物质文明经济和资本主义(第3卷)》第一卷题为《日常生活的结构》,分别描述十五至十八世纪世界范围内的人口、粮食、食品与饮料、居住与衣着、能源与冶金、技术革命、货币、城市。第二卷题为《形形色色的交换》,分析交易的工具、市场、生产、资本主义组织、社会各统治集团(包括国家、文化)。第三卷题为《世界的时代》,按地区和年代顺序,分别叙述先后控制世界经济的威尼斯、安特卫普、热那亚、阿姆斯特丹,并涉及法、英等国的国内外市场,以及美洲、黑非洲、俄罗斯、土耳其及远东的经济特点,最后以英国工业革命结束。