Written by one of the preeminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Judea Pearl presents and unifies the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual, and structural approaches to causation and devises simple mathematical tools for studying the relationships between causal connections and statistical associations. Cited in more than 2,100 scientific publications, it continues to liberate scientists from the traditional molds of statistical thinking. In this revised edition, Judea Pearl elucidates thorny issues, answers readers' questions, and offers a panoramic view of recent advances in this field of research. Causality will be of interest to students and professionals in a wide variety of fields. Dr Judea Pearl has received the 2011 Rumelhart Prize for his leading research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and systems from The Cognitive Science Society.

A modernized new edition of one of the most trusted books on time series analysis. Since publication of the first edition in 1970, Time Series Analysis has served as one of the most influential and prominent works on the subject. This new edition maintains its balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series and also introduces the latest developments that have occurred n the field over the past decade through applications from areas such as business, finance, and engineering. The Fourth Edition provides a clearly written exploration of the key methods for building, classifying, testing, and analyzing stochastic models for time series as well as their use in five important areas of application: forecasting; determining the transfer function of a system; modeling the effects of intervention events; developing multivariate dynamic models; and designing simple control schemes. Along with these classical uses, modern topics are introduced through the book's new features, which include: A new chapter on multivariate time series analysis, including a discussion of the challenge that arise with their modeling and an outline of the necessary analytical tools New coverage of forecasting in the design of feedback and feedforward control schemes A new chapter on nonlinear and long memory models, which explores additional models for application such as heteroscedastic time series, nonlinear time series models, and models for long memory processes Coverage of structural component models for the modeling, forecasting, and seasonal adjustment of time series A review of the maximum likelihood estimation for ARMA models with missing values Numerous illustrations and detailed appendices supplement the book,while extensive references and discussion questions at the end of each chapter facilitate an in-depth understanding of both time-tested and modern concepts. With its focus on practical, rather than heavily mathematical, techniques, Time Series Analysis , Fourth Edition is the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. this book is also an invaluable reference for applied statisticians, engineers, and financial analysts.
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时间序列分析:预测与控制

《几何学在文明中所扮演的角色:纪念陈省身先生的辉煌几何人生》先对中国和希腊的几何作简单介绍与比较，然后分别以几何学与天文学，对称性与最小作用原理，从勾股弦到狭义相对论，大域几何、纤维丛与近代物理为主题简述其梗概，藉以初步体现几何学在理性文明中所扮演的角色。几何学是贯穿人类文明古今之核心部分。

This landmark among mathematics texts applies group theory to quantum mechanics, first covering unitary geometry, quantum theory, groups and their representations, then applications themselves—rotation, Lorentz, permutation groups, symmetric permutation groups, and the algebra of symmetric transformations. Unabridged republication of the English (1931) edition.

Donors, leaders of nonprofits, and public policy makers usually have the best of intentions to serve society and improve social conditions. But often their solutions fall far short of what they want to accomplish and what is truly needed. Moreover, the answers they propose and fund often produce the opposite of what they want over time. We end up with temporary shelters that increase homelessness, drug busts that increase drug-related crime, or food aid that increases starvation.
How do these unintended consequences come about and how can we avoid them? By applying conventional thinking to complex social problems, we often perpetuate the very problems we try so hard to solve, but it is possible to think differently, and get different results.
Systems Thinking for Social Change enables readers to contribute more effectively to society by helping them understand what systems thinking is and why it is so important in their work. It also gives concrete guidance on how to incorporate systems thinking in problem solving, decision making, and strategic planning without becoming a technical expert.
Systems thinking leader David Stroh walks readers through techniques he has used to help people improve their efforts to end homelessness, improve public health, strengthen education, design a system for early childhood development, protect child welfare, develop rural economies, facilitate the reentry of formerly incarcerated people into society, resolve identity-based conflicts, and more.
The result is a highly readable, effective guide to understanding systems and using that knowledge to get the results you want.
Review
“I don't know of another book in this field that presents the ideas of systems thinking in such a clear and practical way, with so many real-world examples."--Janice Molloy, managing editor, Reflections: The SoL NorthAmerica Journal on Knowledge, Learning, and Change
Publishers Weekly-
"This dense volume will be of genuine use to many in the nonprofit world ... Stroh has a valuable insight to impart: Becoming a more effective systems thinker is not just an analytical task 'but also an emotional, physical, and ultimately spiritual one.' For those dedicated enough to stay with Stroh's message, this book will be a useful beginning.”
“Stroh has offered an important gem in his new book, Systems Thinking for Social Change. Both illuminating and immediately useful, the book shares the key dynamics and success factors gleaned from his long career of working with organizations struggling with society’s most persistent issues. A must read for anyone whose aim is to make a difference on the ground.”--Kristina Wile, co-president, Leverage Networks, and managing partner, Systems Thinking Collaborative
“If there is only one book you read on systems thinking, it should be Systems Thinking for Social Change. If you’re new to systems thinking, I consider this a must read. If you’ve been involved in systems thinking for some time and want a renewed and extended perspective, I highly recommend it. Stroh’s new work covers all the relevant areas appropriate for a solid introduction to systems thinking, though it doesn’t stop there. It makes a serious contribution by detailing a number of real-world situations that have been investigated and improved using the approach presented in the book. And it does very well something that I’ve not seen done before: it not only shows how to map the current system, but also shows how to then create a revised map of how the system is intended to work in the future. This approach ends up identifying where measurements should be made on an ongoing basis to ascertain whether the system is undergoing the intended transformation.”--Gene Bellinger, director, Systems Thinking World, Inc.
“The philanthropic sector has shifted from a ‘charity’ mindset to a focus on changing systems to create sustainable change. Systems Thinking for Social Change offers practical tools for those serious about improving communities and organizations. It doesn’t minimize the complexity, but rather empowers social-change agents with tools to understand the complexity and identify the leverage points.”--Teresa Behrens, director, Institute for Foundation and Donor Learning
“Over fifteen years ago, David Stroh was instrumental in introducing systems thinking to the peace-building field, using tools that have proven to be powerful for improving the effectiveness of our work. This book is a valuable resource for our field ― a must read for all practitioners who have been seeking practical and easy-to-understand guidance on using systems thinking for conflict analysis and strategic planning for better impacts.”--Diana Chigas, professor of practice, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and co-director of collaborative learning, CDA Collaborative Learning Projects
“This is a must read for public leaders and citizens who are interested in the learning disciplines required for a sustainable, proactive approach to preserving our shared resources.”--Georgianna Bishop, president, The Public Sector Consortium
“For those who have worked for many years in the social-service sector, and who have grown cynical or disillusioned as to whether it is even possible to effect major social change, David Peter Stroh’s book, Systems Thinking for Social Change, is a must read―a clear, thoughtful, and practical guide for those desiring to create lasting social change. But reader beware! Systems thinking is more than a new way of thinking. As Stroh puts it, it is a new way of being. It requires the ability to look at things in a new way, to interact with others differently, to have a clear vision of where you want to go, a willingness to see things the way they are and, finally, the courage to take responsibility for why the system as is isn’t working. If you want to help create long-lasting, effective social change, if you want to say ‘we’re doing it―we’re actually making progress,’ then read this book.”--Anne Miskey, executive director, Funders Together to End Homelessness
“David Stroh, in his invaluable new book, shows that good intentions are not enough for those who aspire to make lasting progress on fundamental social issues―and also how the language and tools of systems theory can provide a deeper understanding of the root causes and help identify the leverage points for productive and sustainable change.”--Russell Eisenstat, executive director, Center for Higher Ambition Leadership
“Societal problems are a swirl of causes, effects, interactions, and contributing relationships. Yet, too often, simplistic answers are applied by the well-intended that only touch on one strand of what is (in reality) a complex and interconnected web. Stroh’s work provides an actionable guide on how to model these relationships―and more importantly how to have a meaningful and lasting impact on them.”--Jason E. Glass, superintendent and chief learner, Eagle County Schools

Few writers distinguish themselves by their ability to write about complicated, even obscure topics clearly and engagingly. In Chaos, James Gleick, a former science writer for the New York Times, shows that he resides in this exclusive category. Here he takes on the job of depicting the first years of the study of chaos--the seemingly random patterns that characterise many natural phenomena.
This is not a purely technical book. Instead, it focuses as much on the scientists studying chaos as on the chaos itself. In the pages of Gleick's book, the reader meets dozens of extraordinary and eccentric people. For instance, Mitchell Feigenbaum, who constructed and regulated his life by a 26-hour clock and watched his waking hours come in and out of phase with those of his coworkers at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
As for chaos itself, Gleick does an outstanding job of explaining the thought processes and investigative techniques that researchers bring to bear on chaos problems. Rather than attempt to explain Julia sets, Lorenz attractors and the Mandelbrot Set with gigantically complicated equations, Chaos relies on sketches, photographs and Gleick's wonderful descriptive prose. --Christine Buttery

Group theory is the branch of mathematics that studies symmetry, found in crystals, art, architecture, music and many other contexts. But its beauty is lost on students when it is taught in a technical style that is difficult to understand. Visual Group Theory assumes only a high school mathematics background and covers a typical undergraduate course in group theory from a thoroughly visual perspective.
The more than 300 illustrations in Visual Group Theory bring groups, subgroups, homomorphisms, products, and quotients into clear view. Every topic and theorem is accompanied with a visual demonstration of its meaning and import, from the basics of groups and subgroups through advanced structural concepts such as semidirect products and Sylow theory.

基于布尔代数的比较法导论，ISBN：9787543221659，作者：（瑞士）丹尼尔·卡拉曼尼（Daniele Caramani） 著 蒋勤 译 吴晓刚 编

个人觉得是非常好的微分方程教材

微分方程动力系统与混沌导论（第二版），ISBN：9787115172181，作者：（美国）赫希、（美国）斯梅尔 著；甘少波 译

Scientific knowledge grows at a phenomenal pace-but few books have had as lasting an impact or played as important a role in our modern world as "The Mathematical Theory of Communication", published originally as a paper on communication theory in the "Bell System Technical Journal" more than fifty years ago. Republished in book form shortly thereafter, it has since gone through four hardcover and sixteen paperback printings. It is a revolutionary work, astounding in its foresight and contemporaneity. The University of Illinois Press is pleased and honored to issue this commemorative reprinting of a classic.

在2002年一篇曾引发数学界巨大反响的文章《一个数学家的叹息》中，保罗·洛克哈特猛烈抨击了美国中小学数学教育的现状：学生只是被要求记住公式，并在练习题中反复套用，而这一创造性过程应有的兴奋、喜悦乃至痛苦和挫败却不见了。
在洛克哈特看来，数学是一门艺术，而老师教授数学的方法应该是，向学生诚实地传递自己对于这门学科的热爱，激发和激励他们与生俱来的好奇心，并帮助和引导他们实际投身到这段迷人的旅途中去。
本书正是洛克哈特这一思想的体现。他对数学的热爱在字里行间显露无遗，同时他也不讳言旅途的艰难。本书分为两个部分，分别介绍了对形状和运动的度量。他以平实的语言将几何学和微积分的复杂概念以及两者之间的精妙关联解释得清晰易懂，生动展示了数学家都在做什么，以及他们为什么要这么做。

该书是一本von Neumann关于“自复制自动机”的研究论文集，由von Neumann在密西根大学的助手Arthur Burk（大名鼎鼎的John Holland的博士导师）整理编辑。
这本书的意义不仅仅在于它实际上开创了“人工生命”、“细胞自动机”等多门复杂性研究的分支。更重要的是，该书将“自我复制”作为生命的一个本质特征加以数学建模的研究。而这套理论和可计算性理论、歌德尔定理以及热力学深深地联系到了一起。这一点也许对于我们研究复杂系统的人来说仍具有重要的意义。

本书作为实验设计与分析领域的名著, 是作者在亚利桑那州立大学、华盛顿大学和佐治亚理工学院三所大学近40年实验设计教学经验的基础上编写的. 全书内容广泛, 实例丰富,包括简单比较试验、析因设计、分式析因第1章设计、拟合回归模型、响应曲面方法和设计、稳健参数设计和过程稳健性研究、含随机因子的实验、嵌套设计和裂区设计等.
本书可作为自然科学研究人员、工程技术人员、管理人员进行科学实验设计与分析的参考书, 也可作为农林类、医学类、生物类、统计类的教师和高年级本科生和研究生的教学参考用书.

本书详细介绍非线性动力系统高维定性理论和分支理论（局部和大范围）。本教材共分两卷。第一卷共有6章和两个附录，主要内容有：动力系统基本概念、动力系统的结构稳定平衡态和结构稳定周期轨线、不变环面、局部和非局部中心流形理论、以及鞍点平衡态附近系统的特殊形式和鞍点不动点附近轨线的一阶渐近。本书可作为大学数学系高年级本科生、研究生和教师的教科书和教学参考书，也可供非线性动力学和动力系统其它方面的学生、教师、工程师、学者和专家学习和参考。

An introductory text in nonlinear dynamics and chaos, emphasizing applications in several areas of science, which include vibrations, biological rhythms, insect outbreaks, and genetic control systems. Contains a rich selection of illustrations, with many exercises and examples. Softcover.

"...a blend of erudition (fascinating and sometimes obscure historical minutiae abound), popularization (mathematical rigor is relegated to appendices) and exposition (the reader need have little knowledge of the fields involved) ...and the illustrations include many superb examples of computer graphics that are works of art in their own right." Nature

本书讨论了解形分析，这是一个发展很快的数学分支，主要研究分形的动态特性，如分形的热扩散及分形结构材料的振动。本书从基本的自相似集合的几何学原理开始，逐步对新近的研究成果加以讨论，其中包括拉普拉斯算子的特征值和特征函数的性质、自相似集合热核的渐近特性等。
阅读本书只需具备高等分析学、普通拓扑学和测度论的基础知识。本书特别适合分析和概率论专业的研究生和研究人员阅读，同时本书也非常适合用为与分开有关的研究生课程的初充教材。