The efficient markets hypothesis has been the central proposition in finance for nearly thirty years. It states that securities prices in financial markets must equal fundamental values, either because all investors are rational or because arbitrage eliminates pricing anomalies. This book describes an alternative approach to the study of financial markets: behavioral finance. This approach starts with an observation that the assumptions of investor rationality and perfect arbitrage are overwhelmingly contradicted by both psychological and institutional evidence. In actual financial markets, less than fully rational investors trade against arbitrageurs whose resources are limited by risk aversion, short horizons, and agency problems. The book presents and empirically evaluates models of such inefficient markets. Behavioral finance models both explain the available financial data better than does the efficient markets hypothesis and generate new empirical predictions. These models can account for such anomalies as the superior performance of value stocks, the closed end fund puzzle, the high returns on stocks included in market indices, the persistence of stock price bubbles, and even the collapse of several well-known hedge funds in 1998. By summarizing and expanding the research in behavioral finance, the book builds a new theoretical and empirical foundation for the economic analysis of real-world markets.

如果你只有十几岁，阅读这本书会让你从童话般的寓言故事中获得经济学的启蒙教育！
如果你是二十几岁，阅读这本书可以让你再度温习一遍你在大学经济学课堂里让你迷糊的经济学天书，不过，这一次保证你再也不会迷糊了！
如果你是三十几岁到五十几岁，这本书可以纠正你思维中所滞留的的所有有偏差的经济学常识，经济学家已经把你的大脑固化了，现在该是你清醒的时候了！
如果你已经退休了，没关系，这本书既可以让你衡量你以前的经济学人生是否完美，也可以让你在孙辈面前有了培养他们智慧人生的最佳读物。
不信，你就试试看……
如何对经济领域的各种细节和现象进行整体性分析，这是一项艰巨的任务——特别是在很多专家似乎不可能承担这项任务时，它便显得尤为艰巨。但是，当你开始切实接触到经济学的基本要素时，就会发现这项任务比你想象的容易得多。《经济为什么会崩溃》一书运用插图、幽默口吻以及讲故事的平实手法，将经济学从高不可攀的架子上取下来，放回到厨房的餐桌上，它本就该属于那个地方。
这个关于鱼、渔网、存钱、借钱的故事揭露了全球经济对话中暗藏的众多漏洞。希夫兄弟以机智幽默的手法阐释了经济增长的根源、贸易、储蓄及风险三者的重要性，滞涨的根源、利率的影响及政府的刺激机制、消费信贷的破坏性本质等问题。两位作者还谈及其他许多经济原则问题，这些问题经常被讨论，却常常被误解。
这究竟是一本什么样的书？竟然能激起这么多人的阅读狂潮？想弄明白，还是翻开读一读吧！

这个故事有个一个史无前例的开始，一个国家从一介殖民地企图变身为世界第一强国。这个故事也是一个耳熟能详的结局，因为我们的生活每时每刻都在被这个国家的点点滴滴所影响。从华盛顿、杰斐逊、《独立宣言》到奥巴马、米老鼠、麦当劳，我们几乎每个人都对美国最初的理想和最终的实力或多或少有些了解。
但我们不知道的是这个故事中间的过程。美国是怎么样崛起的呢？其崛起过程到底是一帆风顺还是问题多多？美国到底走了多少弯路，这些问题又都是如何解决的呢？美国在20世纪初已经成为了世界第一的经济强国，因此美国“成长的痛楚”也多集中在其建国最初期的100年中。
这也是正是本书所介绍的。在日渐兴盛的中国，我们面对的正是美国人在建国时面对的难题：如何从“一穷二白”中崛起成为世界大国。通过回顾美国的经历，我们能够以史为鉴，从美国人的肩膀上更上一层楼，好好走完中国第一个100年。

The tsunami of cheap credit that rolled across the planet between 2002 and 2008 was more than a simple financial phenomenon: it was temptation, offering entire societies the chance to reveal aspects of their characters they could not normally afford to indulge. Icelanders wanted to stop fishing and become investment bankers. The Greeks wanted to turn their country into a pinata stuffed with cash and allow as many citizens as possible to take a whack at it. The Germans wanted to be even more German; the Irish wanted to stop being Irish. Michael Lewis's investigation of bubbles beyond our shores is so brilliantly, sadly hilarious that it leads the American reader to a comfortable complacency: oh, those foolish foreigners. But when he turns a merciless eye on California and Washington, DC, we see that the narrative is a trap baited with humor, and we understand the reckoning that awaits the greatest and greediest of debtor nations.

在线阅读本书
The economic tipping point for the United States is no longer theoretical. It is a reality today. The country has gone from the world′s largest creditor to its greatest debtor; the value of the dollar is sinking; domestic manufacturing is winding down – and these trends don′t seem to be slowing. Peter Schiff casts a sharp, clear–sighted eye on these factors and explains what the possible effects may be and how investors can protect themselves. For more than a decade, Schiff has not only observed the U.S. economy, but also helped his clients reposition their portfolios to reflect his outlook. What he sees is a nation facing an economic storm brought on by growing federal, personal, and corporate debt, too–little savings, a declining dollar, and lack of domestic manufacturing.
Crash–Proof is an informed and informative warning of a looming period marked by sizeable tax hikes, loss of retirement benefits, double digit inflation, even – as happened recently in Argentina – the possible collapse of the middle class. However, Schiff does have a survival plan that can provide the protection that readers will need in the coming years.

A fully updated follow-up to Peter Schiff's bestselling financial survival guide-Crash Proof, which described the U.S. economy as a house of cards on the verge of collapse, with over 80 pages of new material The economic and monetary disaster which seasoned Wall Street prognosticator Peter Schiff predicted is no longer hypothetical-it is here today. And nobody understands what to do in this situation better than the man who saw it coming. For more than a decade, Schiff has not only observed the U.S. economy, but also helped his clients restructure their portfolios to reflect his outlook. What he sees today is a nation facing an economic storm brought on by growing federal, personal, and corporate debt; too little savings; and a declining dollar. Crash Proof 2.0 picks up right where the first edition-a bestselling book that predicted the current market mayhem-left off. This timely guide takes into account the dramatic economic shifts that are reshaping America and provides you with the insights and information to navigate the dangerous terrain. Throughout the book, Schiff explains the factors that will affect your future financial stability and offers a specific three step plan to battle the current economic downturn. Discusses the measures you can take to protect yourself-as well as profit-during these difficult times Offers an insightful examination of the structural weaknesses underlying the economic meltdown Outlines a plan that will allow you to preserve wealth and protect the purchasing power of your savings Other titles by Schiff: Crash Proof and The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets Filled with in-depth insights and expert advice, Crash Proof 2.0 will help you survive and thrive during the coming years of economic uncertainty.
From the Inside Flap
he economic and monetary disaster, which seasoned Wall Street prognosticator Peter Schiff warned of in the bestselling first edition of Crash Proof, is no longer hypothetical—it is here today. And while most people believe that the economic collapse is over, the reality is that it has only just begun. That's why he's returned with Crash Proof 2.0. For more than a decade, Schiff has not only observed the U.S. economy, but also helped his clients restructure their portfolios to reflect his outlook. What he sees today is a nation facing a growing economic storm—brought on by bursting bubbles and growing federal, personal, and corporate debt—that will only continue to intensify as the U.S. government refuses to allow market forces to repair the damage. Crash Proof 2.0 picks up right where the first edition—which clearly foresaw the bursting of the real estate bubble, credit crunch, and the insolvency of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—left off and includes more than 80 new pages of up-to-the-minute analysis and advice. This timely guide takes into account the dramatic economic shifts that are reshaping America and provides you with valuable insights which will allow you to protect yourself, as well as prosper, during the difficult times that lie ahead. Throughout the book, Schiff explains the factors that will affect your future financial stability—from the bubble in bond prices and collapse of the dollar to surging long-term interest rates and run-away inflation—and offers a specific three-step plan to battle today's economic downturn, and tomorrow's market mayhem. STEP #1: Rethinking Your Stock Portfolio shows you exactly how to solidify your portfolio with foreign securities that are better positioned to weather the storm and deliver meaningful long-term returns STEP #2: Gold Rush examines the various ways to capitalize on the bull markets in gold and silver and explains how these precious metals can add both safety and growth potential to a conservative foreign stock portfolio STEP #3: Stay Liquid discusses the different aspects of liquidity and the importance of having it during times of financial turmoil Even with all that's happened in the last few years, the real collapse still lies ahead. With Crash Proof 2.0 as your guide, you'll discover a long-term plan that will put you in a better position to survive and thrive during the coming years of economic uncertainty.
点击链接进入中文版：
美元大崩溃(2.0版)

《黄金简史》一书，用黄金的历史作架构，以丰富精彩的内容，向读者展开了一幅浸染着几千年来人类贪婪本性与文明发展交织融合的历史画卷——从可怜的、为黄金所淹没的迈达斯国王，到每年将与其体重等蘑的黄金拿去送人的阿里•汉；从斯基泰人华丽灿烂的黄金装饰，到南美洲阴冷潮湿的淘金矿井；从犹太人围之起舞的小金牛，到纽约联邦储备银行的地下金库；从孟加拉的街市，到伦敦的金融市场……读者徜徉其中，一边阅历着黄金在各种历史时期角色的变换，一边慨叹着人类的睿智和命运，似乎永远超越不了黄金的不朽光芒。
美国国家历史博物馆名誉主席罗格•G.肯尼迪（Roger G.Kennedy）认为“能够拜读如此大作，深感荣幸”，并“为伯恩斯坦广博的知识深深折服”。
哈佛大学经济学教授、著名经济学家约翰•肯尼斯•加尔布雷思（JohnKenneth Galbraith）认为《黄金简史》不仅“妙笔生花”，而且还提供了“一个非常精彩有趣的视角——不仅关乎黄金，而且涉及更为宏大的经济史”。
美联储前主席保罗•A.沃尔克（Paul A.Volcker）给予此书很高的评价：“无论是对个人，还是对国家而言，黄金，因其壮观的历史场面和神奇的情节，在任何时候都具有无法消除的魔力。彼得•伯恩斯坦完成了这项挑战，他独辟蹊径，呈现给我们一部优秀的读物，令我们不仪掩卷沉思，更有深刻的反省。” 2008年1月2日，国际市场黄金期货交易价格上涨至每盎司860美元，成功突破了1980年1月21日创下的850美元／盎司的历史峰位；3月14日，其交易价格更是突破了1000美元／盎司的整数大关。国际社会为之震惊，黄金投资成为举世瞩目的焦点！
是的，早在公元前5世纪，古希腊抒情诗人品达（Pindar）就说过：“黄金是宙斯之子。”
作为贵金属，黄金见证了从古至今人们经久不衰的贪婪与恐惧、迷恋与困扰。

《大国政治的悲剧》于2001年10月在美国出版以后，便在国际关系理论界和新闻界引起了巨大反响。在冷战后理论界一片“历史终结论”、“大战过时论”和“民主和平论”的声音中，作者指出在一个没有国际权威统治他国的世界里，大国一律损人利己，追逐权力，并成为支配性国家，在此过程中大国间必然产生冲突，这就是国家的悲剧，作为《大国政治的悲剧》的结论，作者认为中国将是美国最大的威胁。这一结论在国内引起了不小的震动，各类书评均已在各种刊物和网页上出现。但都只是对《大国政治的悲剧》的片面理解。《大国政治的悲剧》的译者也已在《文汇报》上发表关于《大国政治的悲剧》的书评，以纠正读者的片面理解。作者究竟是如何得出这一结论的，只有在完整阅读《大国政治的悲剧》后才能有所认识。

大卫·丹比是美国《纽约》杂志电影评论家。1991年的一天，他突然意识到自己成了一个只读新闻、时事书籍以及各种杂文的人，而且当时在美国大学，西方经典遭到少数民族和女权主义者以及一些激进知识分子的攻击。这让丹比非常生气。他回到母校，重修“文学人文”和“当代文明”这两门本科生必修课。本书是他重读西方文学、哲学、政治名著的故事，有趣而给人启发。

作者以幽默诙谐的手笔，娓娓道出对书籍的搜求、阅读与收藏的痴迷，把爱书人的种种病状——列举出来，让我们看了会心一笑。在轻松自如的笔墨中，作者带我们回顾了图书的历史、风格，书痴的百态，收藏癖的种种表现以及各种类型的买书人，可谓妙趣横生，别有风味。

这是近50年来在生物医学领域里写的很重要的一本书……关于我们的身体为什么这样对创伤和疾病作出反应的有说服力的探索。大多数人都知道达尔文学说。但是现在，在开创一个新的考察进化论和医学的领域里。尼斯和威廉斯博士指出疾病的许多方面不过是进化过程的副作用。事实上，人类和他们的敌人——病毒、细菌和寄生虫之间不断的战争——确实是一场进化史中的军备竞赛，在这场竞赛中，我们人类需要利用关于自然选择的知识使我们永远处于领先地位。

近年来，几次全球性的金融危机再一次将全球化问题推到了风口浪尖之上。人们开始思索，全球化是否是一个正确的选择，全球化真的有利于世界的发展，能够实现全世界共同发展的目标吗？本书用大量真实的案例告诉我们，全球化没有错，错的是我们推动全球化的方法，错的是我们追求的全球化的程度。每个国家都各有其特点，适用于某一国家的方法不一定适用于其他国家，想要用一种方法在各国实现全球化是不可能的。此外，一味地拒绝全球化，各国之间会存在难以逾越的壁垒，不利于各国共同发展；而过分推崇全球化，会将某个地区的危机无限放大，最终变成世界性的灾难。所以，本书要告诉我们的是：各国应该根据自己的国情，选择恰当的方法推动全球化；要推行适度的全球化，充分发挥出全球化的优势。

在这本书中，斯密克以“内幕知情者”的角色引领我们“穿越”中央银行家、财政部长甚至总理的私人办公室。他揭示了今天的风险环境是如何形成的——为什么次贷危机是潜在的更具破坏性灾难的象征。他深入探究了萦绕着我们每个人头脑中但却无法想明白的问题：为什么“沸腾的大锅炉”——中国，它会生成一个巨大的泡沫？日本家庭主妇已经掌控了她们国家的储蓄，这对我们意味着什么呢？为什么我们的世界需要一种“大框架思考”的金融政策以引导危险的巨额资金？在今天变幻莫测的经济中，事情到底发展到了多么严重的地步？我们应该如何应对？

"There is terror in numbers," writes Darrell Huff in How to Lie with Statistics. And nowhere does this terror translate to blind acceptance of authority more than in the slippery world of averages, correlations, graphs, and trends. Huff sought to break through "the daze that follows the collision of statistics with the human mind" with this slim volume, first published in 1954. The book remains relevant as a wake-up call for people unaccustomed to examining the endless flow of numbers pouring from Wall Street, Madison Avenue, and everywhere else someone has an axe to grind, a point to prove, or a product to sell. "The secret language of statistics, so appealing in a fact-minded culture, is employed to sensationalize, inflate, confuse, and oversimplify," warns Huff.
Although many of the examples used in the book are charmingly dated, the cautions are timeless. Statistics are rife with opportunities for misuse, from "gee-whiz graphs" that add nonexistent drama to trends, to "results" detached from their method and meaning, to statistics' ultimate bugaboo--faulty cause-and-effect reasoning. Huff's tone is tolerant and amused, but no-nonsense. Like a lecturing father, he expects you to learn something useful from the book, and start applying it every day. Never be a sucker again, he cries!
Even if you can't find a source of demonstrable bias, allow yourself some degree of skepticism about the results as long as there is a possibility of bias somewhere. There always is.
Read How to Lie with Statistics. Whether you encounter statistics at work, at school, or in advertising, you'll remember its simple lessons. Don't be terrorized by numbers, Huff implores. "The fact is that, despite its mathematical base, statistics is as much an art as it is a science." --Therese Littleton

道歉；客户迟疑不定；供货商百般刁难；突发的公共关系危机；想让别人帮忙，却难以启齿……教你破解潜藏在高难度谈话中的隐形结构，剖析高难度谈话的三个层次：“发生了什么”对话；情绪对话；自我认知对话。
突破谈话瓶颈，实现完美沟通。
此刻的谈话是如此艰难，但是总会在你毫无准备时不期而至，是面对还是逃避？是的，除了面对，我们别无选择。
曾在南非种族隔离前夜和1980年伊拉克人质事件中参与谈判的美国沟通专家道格拉斯•斯通(Douglas Stone)与闻名世界的“哈佛谈判小组”成员经过15年的潜心研究、数千次的专业咨询，锤炼出破解顶级沟通难题的有力武器——跨越沟通中的最高峰即 “高难度谈话”的哈佛谈话术。
在这本《纽约时报》排行榜的经典畅销书中，你将会通过丰富且极其生活化的案例一步步地学到：
●如何在毫无防备的情况下开始一场高难度对话
●如何把握高难度谈话的“弦外之音”
●面对正面攻击和指控时如何回应
●破解潜藏在每一次高难度谈话中的隐形结构
当你突破了沟通中的最艰难时刻，还惧怕什么谈不下来？

真是匪夷所思，试想亚当•斯密——一个死了两个世纪的古怪的家伙——他的精神竟然仍在继续发挥着或大或小的影响，甚至超越了这个电子化的现代世界中处于支配地位的科技思想。但事实的确就是如此。
因此，亚当•斯密不能被遗忘！他的一生仅两部巨著，但却公认是西方经济学理论体系的奠定者，甚至今天的人们仍生活在斯密所阐述的时代里。
问题是，市场经济发展了两百多年，人们是否真正理解了斯密？现代西方经济理论和实践的发展是否真正遵循了斯密市场经济思想的真谛？未必！
这本由普林斯顿大学出版社总编写作的书，是一本从经济学说史的角度又立足当代现实的非常有趣的读物。该书具有很好的现实与历史的契合点。该书以现实的“问题意识”为主线展开全书的逻辑的，同时又在各章的论述中与亚当•斯密的经济思想紧密联系，可谓源于现实又不离理论。该书兼顾学术性和通俗性。无论在语言风格还是在内容安排上，都力图体现其通俗性，然而在朴实而又风趣的语言的背后作者试图揭示深刻的经济学思想。
书评摘选
“多尔蒂清楚地告诉我们，如果我们真正坚持了亚当•斯密最初的道德理想，那么恐怕只有无知的幼儿才会害怕他。”
——达林•麦克马洪 《华尔街日报》
“多尔蒂向我们揭示了斯密之后的历代经济学家是如何从斯密那里汲取他们喜欢的东西，却把有价值的见解束之高阁的。今天的经济学家终于开始‘自省’，为的是更好地理解复杂文明社会的本质，而这个文明社会正是我们经济体系的根基。”
——大卫•沃什，《经济学原理》
“阅读这本书仿佛是在咖啡店里与一位魅力四射的经济学狂热爱好者进行了一次有趣的谈话。他坚信经济学很重要——确实如此。多尔蒂先生抑制不住自己的冲动，提出了种种引人入胜的见解，使我们得以更好地解释了市场经济的运作原理。”
——克里斯托弗•法雷尔，《商业周刊》
“这是一次畅游历史经济思想的愉快旅程，它从亚当•斯密的思想出发，马歇尔、凯恩斯、萨缪尔森、弗里德曼、罗默等等伟大的经济学家被作者一一描绘于其中。这本书可以吸引到任何对经济学感兴趣的人。”
——切顿•帕里克，《资本理念》

"Peter Dougherty does the near--impossible in this brilliant book ...[he] makes economics engaging and accessible." ----Professor Larry J. Sabato, University of Virginia In this spirited and timely book, Peter Dougherty shows how economists are drawing on Adam Smitha s civic writings to illuminate how the market creates not only fiscal capital, but "social capital." Dougherty demonstrates how Smitha s ideas are currently experiencing a renaissance. He then explores several impressive initiatives to demonstrate what todaya s theoretical and practicing economists are accomplishing in the spirit of Adam Smitha s moral sentiments: the institutional reform of transitional and developing economies; the financing of new technological, medical, and educational initiatives; and the economic revival of cities. Capitalism pervades every aspect of our daily life. Peter Dougherty now offers a fascinating peek at its hidden soul.